Runcorn: one in ten Labour voters to back Reform in by-election – poll

More than one in ten Labour voters in Runcorn and Helsby plan on backing Reform UK at the upcoming by-election, a new constituency poll has found.

The poll, conducted by Lord Ashcroft, found that Reform is ahead of Labour in the constituency by 40% to 35% among voters weighted by their likelihood to vote.

Among 2024 Labour voters, only 55% told pollsters they were certain to vote at the by-election, with three-quarters of those likely to vote backing the party, when undecideds are removed.

Just over one in ten (13%) said they would vote for Nigel Farage’s party at the by-election, with five percent opting for the Liberal Democrats and four percent for the Green Party.

However, despite Reform UK being the bookies’ favourite to win the by-election, 44% of voters in the constituency thought Labour would win, compared to 26% for Reform.

When asked what the top issues facing the country are, the most common answer among all voters was immigration (34%), the cost of living (30%) and the economy (28%). Immigration was comfortably the most important issue for those planning to vote for Reform (66%), while the NHS and social care was top for those supporting Labour (35%).

The poll comes just a day after Labour announced their candidate for the upcoming by-election, with local teacher and councillor Karen Shore defending the seat for the party when voters go the polls.

The by-election will be the first since Keir Starmer took office in July and will be a major political test for the new Labour government.

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