‘Caving to pressure for new oil and gas licences won’t win SNP or Reform voters’

Keir Starmer’s Labour gained power on the boldest clean energy manifesto of any British government. Since the election no new oil and gas licences have been issued – a promise made, a promise kept.

Rethinking this policy, as reports in The Times suggest some Labour figures are encouraging, would be a complete disaster for workers, communities and the government.

Britain’s future is not in oil and gas 

Michael Shanks, the Scottish Labour MP and UK energy minister, was right when he declared that Britain’s “future does not lie in more oil and gas”. As one of the most mature and explored basins on the planet the North Sea is in terminal decline, production already peaked in the last century.

It is a hard reality to confront, and the world might have changed since Labour entered government, but the North Sea’s geology cannot be altered. That is why, although well intentioned, suggestions from Anas Sarwar that new UK oil and gas fields could be the answer to energy security are misguided.

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80% of the oil that is extracted from the UK’s continental shelf is exported and sold overseas to the highest bidder.

Meanwhile, the regulator’s forecasts show that the UK will be 94% reliant on gas imports by 2050 even if new fields are developed, only a fraction lower than if no new fields are developed (97% dependency). Jobs supported by the sector have more than halved in the last decade despite hundreds of new licenses being issued.

Don’t back down, double down 

Labour are right to focus on how to manage the transition away from oil and gas. It is unsurprising that the Conservatives and Reform are attempting to block the change that the country voted for. Kemi Badenoch is, after all, funded by climate deniers, and Richard Tice, who thinks human activity and climate breakdown are not linked, doesn’t have a grasp on basic science.

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Watering down policies designed to wean Britain off fossil fuels will not fend off any electoral threat either the Conservatives or Reform may pose to Labour.

Holding the 36 seats Labour gained in Scotland last July will require Starmer to double down on efforts aimed at making Britain a clean energy superpower. Especially since voters in every constituency worry more about climate change, than not.

SNP voters in particular are amongst the most climate-concerned with almost a vast majority wanting climate change to be a government priority. Across the country people overwhelmingly see renewables as the route to a safer Britain where energy is affordable and new jobs are created.

The last election is recent enough to remember that abandoning clean energy goals and promising to ‘max out’ North Sea oil and gas did not play out well for the incumbent Conservative Party. Nor did the SNP’s fence sitting which was widely ridiculed.

An orderly and managed phase out 

Without an aggressive communication campaign Labour will be blamed for the last government’s failure. Starmer’s government inherited an unfair transition. They must now work to rebuild the North Sea’s future in industries such as wind manufacturing. And unlike Nigel Farage, whose approach to the North Sea would see Britain poorer, Labour must provide a secure future for workers.

The Danish experience shows that governments can achieve smooth transitions away from oil and gas production. That requires a booming renewable industry, particularly in wind manufacturing, policy security, support for workers and engagement with unions, business and civil society.

Fortunately the UK’s green economy is growing three times faster than the wider economy and since the election £43bn of private investment has been pledged for the government’s clean power mission. Analysis by Uplift shows that the government could create 10,000 permanent renewable energy jobs and up to 13,000 indirect jobs in areas that are experiencing decline, supporting oil and gas workers into new industries.

If the government implements their ban on ending new oil and gas through legislation, similar to their plans for ending coal licences, then there will be no doubt in the government’s position on this issue ensuring that workers, communities and business can go forward with confidence.

Delivering an orderly, managed transition in the North Sea can allow Labour to win against Conservatives and Reform. Badenoch and Farage want Britain to cling on to an impossible status quo that sees oil and gas giants make huge profits, workers face an insecure future and households vulnerable to extortionate energy prices. Labour, on the other hand, wants to unleash the most exciting industrial revolution of our times. By embracing that sense of insurgency they can deliver the change voters want and retain power.

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