Mass vote losses to Lib Dems and Greens would cost Labour twice as many seats as mass Reform switch, survey claims

Labour could lose more seats from a large-scale defection to the Greens and Liberal Democrats than a similar-scale loss of votes to Reform, a new survey suggests.

Analysis by Persuasion UK found that while 123 Labour constituencies are vulnerable to voters switching to Nigel Farage’s party, the threat is dwarfed by the number of constituencies the party could lose if voters defect en masse to more progressive parties, with 250 MPs at risk.

Reform would likely benefit from a mass defection to the Greens and Lib Dems by picking up scores of seats where they are currently second place behind Labour.

While 11 percent of voters who backed Labour at the general election are ‘Reform-curious’, rising to 13 percent in seats where Reform came second, 29 percent would consider voting Green and 41 percent would consider supporting the Liberal Democrats.

The research claims that Labour could increase its overall vote share by boosting investment in public services, taxing wealth and going faster on net zero.

Steve Akehurst, director of Persuasion UK, said: “While there is a clear risk in Labour being complacent about the Reform threat, there is also a risk in over-reacting.

“To win next time, they will need to balance both sides of their coalition.

“The good news for Labour is there does seem to be a way to do this.

“Combining moderate positions on ‘culture war’ issues while championing economic populist policies on public spending, wealth inequality and clean energy appear to work here.”

Read our coverage of the 2025 local elections:

• Local elections expert predicts ‘bad night’ for Labour, with no net seat gains as Reform, Greens and Lib Dems advance
• 2025 local council and mayor elections: What’s a good night for Labour?
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• Hull and East Yorkshire mayor election: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage
• Inside the West of England mayor campaign, from Tory and Green threats to Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Labour candidate Karen Shore on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels

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