Survation poll: Labour members expect Reform victory in Runcorn by-election

More than half of LabourList readers expect Labour to lose the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and anticipate the party will lose a “significant number of seats” at the local elections, exclusive polling by Survation for LabourList has revealed.

Around 53% of those surveyed believe Reform UK candidate Sarah Pochin will win the first Westminster by-election of the parliament, taking place on May 1.

Less than a quarter said they expected Labour to hold the seat when voters go to the polls, with around one in five (19%) unsure as to which party will emerge the victor.

Reform UK are the bookies’ favourite to win in the seat, with two constituency polls suggesting that Nigel Farage’s party could win by a relatively narrow margin after Mike Amesbury’s resignation over his assault conviction.

Members braced for ‘significant’ losses in local elections

As Labour launches its local elections campaign, LabourList’s exclusive poll also found 89% of readers who said they are Labour members believe the party will lose seats. More than half (59%) predicted Labour will lose a “significant number” of councillors on election day.

Of the mayoral elections also taking place on May 1, a plurality of those polled anticipate that Labour will lose all four races – if the notably high proportion of “don’t knows” are excluded.

Excluding the undecideds, two-thirds (69%) said they thought Reform UK would win the new Greater Lincolnshire mayoral election, with 33% expecting the Conservatives to flip the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty.

The poll found that members anticipate a close contest in Hull and East Yorkshire, with 46% expecting a Reform win and 44% predicting Labour will win the new mayoral position.

In the West of England, 35% said they expect the Liberal Democrats to gain the mayoralty, despite the party placing fourth at the last election. Some 31% predicted Labour would hold the title, with 13% forecasting a Tory gain and 11% anticipating a Green victory.

Between 43% and 51% of members answered “don’t know” across the four races.

‘Pessimism reflects a fragile mood ahead of May 1’

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Expectations among Labour’s own members that the party could lose ground to Reform UK in places like Runcorn highlight deep concerns about Labour’s ability to retain support in key areas. The pessimism about both local and mayoral contests reflects a fragile mood in the run-up to May’s elections.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,053 LabourList readers who also said they were Labour Party members between March 26 and April 1, shortly after the Spring Statement.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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