Blow for Labour as Farage outpolls even Burnham and Rayner in Red Wall

Nigel Farage is more popular than even Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner in Red Wall seats, according to a new poll shared exclusively with LabourList that could set the hares running in the Labour ranks.

The Reform leader had a net approval rating of +14% among red wall voters, compared to +5% for Burnham and -19% for Rayner, new polling of 1,000 voters in 42 seats by Merlin Strategy found.

Kemi Badenoch (+5%) and Robert Jenrick (+3%) also outpolled senior Labour figures, though pollsters suggested it could partly reflect her still being little-known.

The Greater Manchester mayor is the most popular politician among a group of senior Labour figures chosen by the pollsters, and the only one in positive territory.

Environment Secretary Ed Miliband is the second most popular at -7%, which his supporters may take as a sign his green agenda is not quite as politically damaging as some opposition and internal critics have suggested.

READ MORE: Revealed: Labour’s financial woes as party unable to balance books this year

Wes Streeting comes in third place at -8%,  notably ahead of Keir Starmer (-13%) in what the Health Secretary’s supporters may similarly take as a sign of Labour’s health agenda cutting through more than the government’s as a whole.

Streeting had been behind Starmer in a recent separate cabinet favourability poll of Labour members carried out specifically for LabourList by our partners Survation.

Both Streeting and the Prime Minister, both London MPs, also notably polled ahead of Starmer’s deputy Rayner, a Greater Manchester MP, who was on -19%. Rayner had ranked well above both and second place in LabourList‘s party member poll, behind Ed Miliband.

Reeves was the least popular Labour figure polled in this Red Wall poll and our previous member poll, on -22%.

The cabinet may find the smallest of consolation in the fact two past Labour leaders of varying stripes did not fare much better. Jeremy Corbyn has a net favourability rating of -14%, while Tony Blair is at -12%.

Badenoch on par with Burnham…

Perhaps most alarmingly for Labour, Kemi Badenoch is as popular as Andy Burnham in the Red Wall, at 5% also, and Robert Jenrick is close behind at +3%.

However, Merlin founder and pollster Scarlett Maguire believess the Tory pair may benefit from their lack of profile in the Red Wall.

She told LabourList: “According to this latest poll, Andy Burnham is the most popular Labour politician, and the only one in net positive territory in the Red Wall. In the Red Wall, it looks like the more voters see and hear about a politician the less favourable their view is.

“Starmer and key members of the Labour front bench including Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves are struggling, whilst figures like Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting fare better.

‘Anonymity helps Badenoch and Jenrick’

Maguire founded: “Anonymity also helps both Badenoch and Jenrick. Their lack of profile in the red wall means fewer voters have a negative view and are undecided on the Conservative pair. This means their net rating is positive. However, as name recognition picks up, these ratings could fall unless views of the Conservative brand improve. All currently trail Nigel Farage.”

Definitions of the Red Wall vary between experts and commentators, but it is generally used to mean a group of traditionally Labour seats lost to the Conservatives in 2019 in the North and Midlands. Almost all were won back by Labour in 2024.

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