PIP: Reeves and Kendall members’ picks for chop in reshuffle – even before U-turn

Ministers and aides will be hoping a significant retreat on welfare reforms today will win round enough rebels to get legislation through the Commons next week, but questions over whether heads should roll – and which – are likely to continue to swirl.

It emerged overnight the government will row back on part of its plans, with Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall saying all current personal independence payment (PIP) claimants will continue to receive their current benefits – and changes to only affect future claimants.

A Number 10 spokesperson told the BBC the government had “listened to MPs” who back reform but not the pace of change (more details here), in a climbdown that will be widely welcomed by the party and those affected by reform. But it risks significant damage to the prime minister’s authority, the government’s reputation, whips’ ability to hold the line on future legislation, and the Chancellor’s fiscal plans.

READ MORE: 70 councillors in hardest-hit region over welfare reform write to Kendall

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Another question is whether it will dampen questions about personnel at the top. One MP reportedly even talked of “regime change” in a Labour WhatsApp group. Some have attacked Keir Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, while others are pointing the finger at chief whip Alan Campbell.

One Labour figure told Sky News’ Beth Rigby on Thursday that, in her words, “the growing drumbeat in the party is that Reeves must go”.

An MP also told The Independent this week: “This ends one of two ways: either we sack him [Starmer] or he sacks her [Reeves].

The sentiment chimes with findings in our recent Survation poll of Labour members among our readership, which we can reveal for the first time here.

Member views on who should go in any reshuffle

We asked members– if there is a cabinet reshuffle later this year, who should be replaced?

In a positive sign for the government, none of the figures we asked about had a majority of supporters calling for them to face the chop. Most of the cabinet had fewer than three in 10 members saying they should be replaced, despite the government’s rocky first year.

But significantly, Rachel Reeves had some 46% of members saying she should be replaced if there were a shakeup, topping the list. Second was the  Liz Kendall, on 42%, despite some MPs recently telling newspapers their ire was not focused specifically on the Work and Pensions Secretary herself given the pressure she faced to make savings.

One source said they were not surprised by Kendall’s score, given she has shouldered not only welfare reform but also winter fuel cuts and WASPI changes.

LabourList‘s polling has previously found most members oppose winter fuel and disability benefit reforms, albeit a small majority back the government on WASPI.

The poll was carried out at the start of the month, and the past few weeks seem unlikely to have boosted either minister’s standing a great deal. The figures also chime with our cabinet league table of favourability ratings, which saw Reeves and Kendall bottom of the list.

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

READ MORE: ‘So much for new Labour MPs being ultra-loyal Starmtroopers’

Survation surveyed 1,304 LabourList readers who also said they were Labour Party members between May 30 and June 1.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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