Ex-Cooper aide: ‘Keir’s ground-breaking deal with France suggests his migration approach could be bearing fruit’

At yesterday’s UK-France Summit, Prime Minister Keir Starmer achieved what his three predecessors have failed to do since Brexit: a one-in-one-out migration deal with France. Although the numbers will initially be modest, the dogged diplomacy of Starmer and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has delivered a ground-breaking policy that contains all the ingredients for success.

We know just what a breakthrough this is, having worked with asylum seekers in Calais and researched what has worked in other countries. Equally important, this deal offers a way forward for the Prime Minister, whose instincts here are progressive, but who is facing insistent calls for Labour to get even tougher on migration to counter the challenge of Reform.

This deal is certainly deeply pragmatic: rooted in evidence of what works, and acknowledging the role of realistic deterrents in the shape of returns to France. But it is also fundamentally progressive in recognising the UK’s shared responsibility to provide protection in a safe and fair way to people with a valid claim for asylum and family in the UK. Indeed, Starmer addressed this directly yesterday when making a principled and pragmatic case for the deal: “We accept genuine asylum seekers – Because it is right that we offer a haven to those in most dire need. But there is also ..something more practical…we simply cannot solve a challenge like stopping the boats… By acting alone and telling our allies that we won’t play ball.”

This progressive realism is a major departure from previous attempts to ‘smash the gangs’ we’ve seen from successive governments. Until now, efforts to prevent people from crossing the Channel have focused largely on the ‘supply-side’ of people smuggling by increasing enforcement activities to raise the operating costs for smugglers. But while this is part of the solution, evidence suggests that the impact of this cat-and-mouse approach can be short-term on its own. To permanently shift the incentives, countries need to directly address the demand for smuggling routes.

Without the commitment to provide access to asylum in alternative, safe and orderly ways, an enforcement-only approach also signals to our closest neighbours that we are unwilling to help share the load in protecting those most in need.

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International cooperation was critical to former President Joe Biden’s policy success in the US, when he effectively broke the business model of smuggling gangs in his final years in office. While it came too late to gain credit with voters, he reduced irregular crossings at the US-Mexico border by over 90% for key nationalities by combining increased cooperation with Mexico on enforcement, with managed visa entry for people in need of protection.

Starmer’s one-in-out-deal could work in a similar way. For the first time since Brexit, it allows the UK to return people who have crossed irregularly back to France – reducing the incentive to board a small boat. And it combines this with UK processing of people from France who may otherwise try to cross the Channel – diverting people into legal systems and away from irregular routes. By both deterring people from taking smuggling routes and diverting people into legal channels, the government could start to reduce the numbers of people crossing the Channel. And just as importantly, visibly show the Labour government regaining control of our borders.

The approach also implicitly acknowledges that if asked what’s more important between control and numbers, the public will consistently prioritise control. While overall numbers of people being admitted to the UK asylum system could remain the same under a one-in-one-out deal, the way in which people arrive, through orderly processing and transfer, allows the UK to exercise far greater control.

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So what’s the catch? While this pilot establishes the principle, our research suggests that to really impact numbers this approach needs to operate at scale.

We propose that the aim of the UK and French governments should ultimately be to open up managed, capped access to UK asylum processing from France, alongside continued returns. By establishing new ‘Asylum Management Centres’, as The Future Governance Forum proposes, the UK could identify those who have a valid claim to asylum without them having to risk the journey to the UK in a small boat. Such an approach would directly address the ‘demand’ for smuggling routes from people fleeing persecution and conflict. Importantly, it could also allow the UK to achieve scale with readmissions over time, which is needed if it hopes to make a major impact on the number of people crossing.

Contrast this with the fantasy politics of populists calling for the UK to turn boats around in the Channel (to where?) or pull out of international treaties that have protected millions of people and guarantee our involvement in mutually beneficial agreements, including the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement securing peace in Northern Ireland and our trade deal with the EU. While Ministers will be keen to manage expectations about the immediate impact of this deal, there should be no doubt about its political significance.

On entering No.10 last year, the Prime Minister pledged to reset the government’s approach on tackling people smuggling: “In pursuit of solutions that will actually deliver results. And more than that… we will approach this issue with humanity. And with profound respect for international law.” One year on, this ground-breaking deal with France suggests this approach could finally be bearing fruit.

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