‘Anti-immigration politics is not the only way forward, if only politicians are prepared to pave the way’

The subject of immigration has perhaps never been as salient, nor as sensitive, as it is now. 46% now consider it one of the top three issues facing the country, behind only cost of living (on 62%) and even ahead of the NHS (43%). 

This visibility is enhanced by recent events. Protests outside asylum hotels continued apace over the summer, as far-right groups have pushed to extend the original Epping protest, and Nigel Farage has promised to deport 600,000 should he get the reins of power.

It is not an exaggeration to say that, in such a climate, the politics of immigration has reached a tipping point, and that the responsibility of politicians to choose their words carefully and take appropriate, considered action, is immense. 

So far, it seems that the government is suffering from a Reform-induced myopia. Starmer has declared that he wants to see every asylum hotel shut, whilst Yvette Cooper in one of her last acts as home secretary suspended family reunion applications for refugees, albeit temporarily.

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Their Reform-lite approach is unlikely to lead to electoral salvation, given the data shows Reform voters are amongst the most anti-immigration and least persuadable. Significantly, it also makes anti-immigration politics the only game in town, rather than the cost of living or NHS.

The possible consequences of such a strategy are alarming to consider, and it neglects the potential ways Labour could forge a path through anti-immigration opinion and foster support for a pro-immigration agenda ahead of the next general election. 

Anti-immigration attitudes are real, but there’s more nuance to this than often assumed

One cannot deny the current strength of anti-immigration sentiment. Our summer poll of the British public found that a quarter (25%) were totally opposed to immigration, compared to just 7% who considered themselves to be totally in favour of immigration.

Overall, almost half (49%) were broadly opposed to immigration contrasted with 30% who were generally in favour of it.

Of those who would vote Reform if a general election were held tomorrow, close to three quarters (73%) were opposed to immigration, with half considering themselves totally opposed. On the other hand, just over a quarter (26%) of those who would vote Labour were opposed to immigration, whereas half (50%) were broadly in favour of it, and a further 25% thought themselves to be neither in favour nor opposed to immigration.

Taken together, these figures do not give much credence to the government’s present approach. They are unlikely to ever be anti-immigration enough to dampen Reform’s rise in the polls, and, if they attempt to do so, they run the risk of undermining their base that gave them such a commanding majority in the Commons in the first place.

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An appropriate response, from the perspective of electoral strategy, would be one of a moderate pro-immigration strategy.

There clearly remains scope to engage the public with alternative ideas. When taking into account margin of error, it’s pretty much a neck-and-neck race between those who are open to being persuaded to a different view and those that are not: 39% are in the former camp compared to 43% in the latter (17% are in the middle).

That being said, the more anti-immigration one is the less persuadable they appear to be – with 52% of those totally opposed to immigration saying they could never be persuaded to a different view, whereas a third of those totally in favour of immigration are very open to being persuaded.     

 Voting intention tells a similar story here. Three fifths of those who would vote Reform are predisposed to being unpersuadable on the subject; whilst 53% of would-be Labour voters lean towards being persuadable.

If Starmer wants to shore up support, convince a base of voters that he has control of a dominant political issue, then he must target these electoral foundations. The data would suggest that going after unpersuadable, anti-immigration, pro-Reform voters is just playing Farage’s game, and Labour will most likely suffer for it.     

Support for the right to migrate is there, at least for Brits themselves

In 7 of 9 scenarios presented to the public, a majority agreed that a British person would have the right to move abroad under those circumstances.

These included if they wanted to study abroad (66%), if their life were in danger in the UK (63%), if they wanted to earn more money (58%), and even if they simply just wanted to relocate to sunnier climes (56%).

Moreover, in the event of war and/or wide-scale persecution, with those staying in the UK risking death, 56% supported the right of Brits to seek asylum in another country, with just shy of a quarter feeling that they did not have such a right.  

When asked about the rights of others to arrive in the UK under different scenarios, the results tell a different story, with our previous polling showing poor support for asylum applications and small boat crossings, even if refugees were fleeing war or persecution. However, when we prompted for safe and legal routes, support was stronger than previously seen. 

There was clear majority support for a migrant to arrive in the UK via a safe and legal route if they fled their country of origin due to risk of death (57%) or persecution (54%). Almost half (49%) felt safe and legal routes were also acceptable for those wanting to reunite with family already in the UK.

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Whilst other scenarios received much less support, especially as compared to the perceived rights of Brits to migrate, what this tells us is that support for immigration is not dead in the water.

What is commonly thought of as anti-immigration opinion might be better described as anti-asylum or anti-small-boats sentiment, and if the Labour government can shift the rhetoric towards safe and legal routes – and back it up with concrete action – they may find a much more amenable public than commonly imagined.   

Whipping up a frenzy can be avoided, if those in power show leadership, steer the debate, and take action

This set of results begins to reveal a much more nuanced picture towards immigration than hitherto assumed. It’s true that the public, on the whole, is more anti-immigration than pro-immigration.

But, under the surface, this anti-immigration position metamorphosises into support for people entering via safe and legal routes in cases where migrants are at risk of death or fleeing persecution, or if they are seeking to reunite with family. Moreover, there is undeniable backing for the right of Brits to migrate across a plethora of scenarios.   

Labour cannot out-Reform Reform. Starmer cannot out-Farage Farage. And there is clearly a demand for an alternative. Labour could launch a pragmatic immigration agenda in the first instance, offering a real counter-narrative to the one currently dominating the airwaves.

Such a proposition should emphasise safe and legal routes for those fleeing desperate circumstances, take concrete steps to put them in place and at an appropriate scale, and convince the public of the need to extend the rights of Brits to migrate to others.

Starmer’s government is playing the wrong game. They need to start setting the agenda, form an original narrative, and demonstrate leadership whilst they have the power to do so. If they do not, they risk swelling Reform’s support and further inflaming tensions.

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