Labour on course for distant third place in Caerphilly by-election, poll shows

Labour is facing a crushing defeat in the upcoming Caerphilly by-election, with a new poll showing the party landing in a distant third place.

The survey, carried out by Survation for Camlas, shows Reform and Plaid Cymru battling it out for the top spot on 42% and 38% respectively.

But the sobering figures show Labour dropping to just 12% of the vote. The seat was won by the late Hefin David with 46% of the vote in the 2021 Senedd election.

Labour has so far never lost a Senedd election since Welsh devolution began. Should Labour fail to hold the seat, the party would face a significant hurdle in passing a Budget next year.

The poll also found that, among those who had backed Labour at the last Senedd election in 2021, 31% were now supporting Plaid Cymru, while 26% were now backing Reform at the by-election.

The poll reinforces the tricky position Labour faces at next year’s Senedd vote, with recent polling suggesting that Labour could end up in third place overall behind Plaid and Reform.

A Welsh Labour source said: “We’re not shying away from the fact this has been a difficult campaign at a difficult time for governments both here and in London.

“We’re spoken to tens of thousands of voters since the start of this by election and we’re hearing those frustrations on the doorsteps. But there’s also real concern about letting Reform in.

“The party’s campaign’s been focussed on the people who live here and what we can deliver by May.  The sample size of the latest poll is smaller than the number of people we talk to in a day. There’s a reason why constituency level polling isn’t widely done. It’s unreliable.”

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Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation said: “Welsh politics is on the cusp of an unprecedented transformation.

“The Labour and Conservative parties previously took a combined 63% of Caerphilly’s Senedd vote in 2021 – our polling indicates this may have plummeted to just 16% as both have seen an extreme fragmentation of their vote to both Reform and Plaid.

“While Labour’s one hundred year long unbeaten record in Caerphilly’s Senedd and Westminster elections is highly likely to be coming to an end, this type of result being replicated nationally will also see the end of over twenty years of Labour Welsh Government dominance, with Reform or Plaid the likely party of power in 2026.”

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