‘This week brought good news for Democrats and progressives in the UK and worldwide’

Demeaned and taunted by President Trump for nine dispiriting months, Democrats finally had a chance on Tuesday to respond with something more than theatrical gestures of resistance. Tapping a rich vein of anti-Trump sentiment, a party famished for wins racked up one after another in America’s odd-year elections. 

Suddenly, Democrats seem politically relevant again. The victories, coming in mainly blue states and cities, don’t necessarily presage big gains in next year’s national midterm elections. For that, they’ll need to win on more competitive terrain. Nonetheless, Tuesday’s outcomes confirmed growing public dismay with Trump’s imperious rule, as well as Democrats’ ability to start reclaiming ground he seized in last year’s presidential contest. 

This is good news for Labour activists in the UK and around the world, as it shows the fractures in the administration are beginning to take political effect.

Most consequential were the big Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia’s governor’s race by 15 points, leading a sweep of top state offices that flipped the state back into the blue column. Democrats also added seats in the state legislature, amassing their biggest majority since 1989.

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In New Jersey, despite polls showing a tight race, Rep. Mikie Sherrill cruised to a 13-point win over her Trump-endorsed Republican opponent. Spanberger and Sherrill exemplify a new breed of pragmatic Democrats who have distanced themselves from the unpopular cultural fixations of the progressive left.

Both describe themselves as “security moms” – Spanberger was a CIA agent and Sherrill flew helicopters for the Navy. Their national security credentials and moderate reputations made it hard for their opponents to tar them as “weak and woke.”

Spanberger and Sherrill focused their campaigns on lowering living costs and keeping communities safe. They emphasised building more affordable housing, holding energy prices down and assuring access to health care. As her opponent harped incessantly on the spectre of transgender women undressing in girl’s bathrooms, Spanberger called for getting culture war politics out of public schools. 

Both unquestionably got a lift from tying their opponents to Trump. According to exit polls, 55 and 56 percent of voters in New Jersey and Virginia respectively disapprove of the president’s job performance. Not surprisingly, Spanberger did especially well in Northern Virginia, where tens of thousands of federal workers have either been fired by DOGE, laid off by the government shutdown or been forced to take buyouts.  

Trump proved to be a turnout magnet for Democrats. This highlights the fatal flaw in his strategy of maximum political polarisation. By offering his opponents nothing but the back of his hand, Trump motivates furious Democrats to turn out in droves. And by excluding them from government decisions, he ensures that he and his party bear the full weight of public frustration with federal sins of commission and omission. That’s why the Republicans appear to be losing the blame game over the ongoing government shutdown. 

Turnout also surged in New York, where two million voters showed up for a three-way race for mayor. The winner was rookie phenomenon, Zohran Mamdani, at 34 the city’s youngest as well as first Muslim mayor. 

Mamdani ran an exciting and impressive race, even if most of his radical proposals for municipal socialism – public grocery stores, free buses and tuitions and other government goodies to be financed by taxing oligarchs – seem fanciful rather than bold. 

Mamdani also stressed making urban life more affordable and his message of radical change resonated in some lower-income and immigrant neighborhoods as well as upscale precincts. But while his loud and proud embrace of democratic socialism may thrill cosmopolitan elites – including fellow travelers like Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn, it won’t travel far beyond big coastal metros.

Against a scandal-plagued opponent, former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, Mamdani managed to win only half the vote. His Democratic predecessors as mayor typically won about two-thirds of the city’s voters. 

What’s more, Cuomo won non-college voters in New York – the group Democrats must do better with to revive their national competitiveness. 

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In contrast, Spanberger and Sherrill demonstrated crossover appeal to the voters Democrats need to build durable majorities.  Both won independents, including voters who supported Trump last year. They also made notable gains in exurban, small town and rural communities.  

Most promising of all, among Latino voters, support for the Democratic candidates grew by 9 points in New Jersey and five points in Virginia. Black voters also shifted toward the Democrats, though less dramatically. And Republican candidates for governor lost under 30 voters by almost 40 points.  

Another big winner on Tuesday was California’s Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom. He championed Proposition 50, which draws a map of Congressional districts more favorable to Democrats. It’s designed to counter Trump’s attempts to pressure Texas and other red states to produce new maps favoring Republicans before the midterm. Nearly 65% of California voters backed the measure, which could produce five new Democratic House seats. 

Will the Republican rout prompt rethinking in the White House? One possibility is that Trump will instruct pliant GOP Congressional leaders to end the government shutdown. Another is that the Supreme Court will invalidate his spurious national security rationale for imposing tariffs, which are driving up costs for consumers and businesses. 

This much seems certain: If Trump doesn’t change course and start fulfilling his pledges to get prices and living costs down soon, Democrats will have an even better midterm election next year. 

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For those watching from across the Atlantic, it’s an encouraging set of results, especially when we look beyond the headlines dominated by the New York contest. But Democrats have their work cut out to show to the American public that the party has changed and is ready to lead again if we are to translate this success into sustained victories at the midterms in the path to the next Presidential election. 

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