Starmer would lose leadership contest to Streeting, Rayner, Burnham and Miliband

Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting would all win a head-to-head leadership contest against Keir Starmer, exclusive polling of Labour members reveals.

Polling conducted by Survation for LabourList found Burnham and Rayner would defeat the incumbent Labour leader and Prime Minister by comfortable margins should an election take place, while Streeting and Miliband have a slight advantage, but within the margin of error.

Over half of members polled (54%) said that there should be a new Labour leader in place before the next general election. This included a narrow plurality of members who backed Keir Starmer for the leadership in 2020, with 41% saying a new leader should be in place, with 40% wanting Starmer to stay – a result within the margin of error.

The poll exposed a clear rift among those who backed either candidate in the deputy leadership contest, with 69% of those who backed Lucy Powell calling for a new leader by the next election, while 51% of Bridget Phillipson supporters want Starmer to stay as party leader.

Burnham would win Starmer contest by 26 points

Were Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham able to contest a leadership contest, he would defeat Starmer with the largest margin of any potential challenger – 26 points. In the hypothetical contest, a clear majority (58%) opted for Burnham over Starmer (32%), with ten percent undecided.

Burnham would need to return to Westminster as a Labour MP in order to be able to challenge Starmer for the party leadership.

His support was greatest in his home region of North West England, with 69% of members prepared to back him, while Starmer’s support was highest in Wales and London at 40% respectively – although in London, the Prime Minister would still trail Burnham by 11 points.

Rayner holds 19 point lead over Starmer in hypothetical head-to-head

Angela Rayner would also defeat Keir Starmer by a 19-point margin, with the former deputy Labour leader attracting 52% to Starmer’s 33%, with 15% undecided.

Rayner, who stood down as a minister and as deputy leader in September after failing to pay the correct amount of tax on a second home, led Starmer in every region of Great Britain, with the exception of the East of England and Wales, where the Prime Minister had a narrow lead.

READ MORE: What are Labour’s rules for a leadership election if Keir Starmer is challenged?

Dead heat between Starmer and Streeting

While Health Secretary Wes Streeting would edge out Keir Starmer should such a contest, with 33% compared to Starmer’s 31%, the result is within the margin of error and effectively a dead heat. Both candidates would also have to woo over the 36% of members who said they would be unsure who to back in such a contest.

Streeting narrowly secured the backing of most members polled who backed Starmer for the leadership in 2020, with 38% prepared to support the Health Secretary compared to 35% for the Prime Minister.

The poll revealed a split contest among regions for support for either side, with London, the North East and Yorkshire backing Streeting, while Starmer would lead in the East Midlands, East of England and South West.

It comes amid briefing, purportedly from Downing Street, earlier this month that alleged that Wes Streeting was preparing an imminent challenge for the Labour leadership.

Four point lead for Miliband against Starmer

Although he has already previously served as party leader, Ed Miliband has been rumoured to be a possible contender to Starmer. Should such a contest take place, Miliband would lead Starmer by four points (44% to 40% respectively).

Survation’s exclusive polling for LabourList revealed that Starmer would win a head-to-head contest against Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson (by 42% to 26%), newly-elected deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell (by 48% to 30%) and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood (by 50% to 16%).

READ MORE: Mahmood sees sharp drop in approval among Labour members

‘The membership are now openly questioning the leadership’

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “Starmer’s team have made it clear that he would contest a leadership contest were one to arise. Of course, that was a week ago and we all know that’s a long time in politics. It may well be that if it came to it Starmer would decide a contest in which he ran – and was possibly defeated – was too damaging to the party in the long term. 

“However, the two leading contenders to Starmer both face significant challenges. Rayner because it may be that not enough time has passed since she, very unfortunately, had to step down. Burnham because he faces several hurdles to being able to run. If things move quickly, he may not be able to return to Parliament in time to be a candidate. This might give Starmer and his team hope. If there is no obvious candidate that can beat him, he will feel much more secure in place.

“While both Miliband and Streeting have much closer margins with Starmer, their situations may be quite different were it to come to a contest. Miliband has repeatedly said he is ‘innoculated’ against wanting the leadership having served once. Streeting may well be able to lean into his ability as a communicator to win over the key undecideds in a race between him and Starmer.

“At the moment this is all speculation. But it is speculation the leadership have invited with their own briefings about Streeting. This conversation has gone from mildly discontented whispers to very real speculation as a result.

“This is the first polling of the Labour membership on this question since it burst into the open. It is clear that they are now openly questioning if Starmer is still the right person to lead the party. ”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,013 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between November 18 and 20.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region, 2020 Labour leadership vote and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy leadership election.

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