‘Britain needs a truly independent nuclear deterrent – Labour should deliver it’

As the war with Iran continues, the Greenland Crisis that came before it has started to fade from view. But as the transatlantic alliance buckles under renewed strain, one particularly unsettling part of that episode must not be forgotten, because it tells us a great deal about the tightrope Keir Starmer has to walk now over Iran – and beyond.

As the prime minister sought to respond to US threats to annex the territory of our European ally, he told a Downing Street press conference on 19 January that ‘Our nuclear deterrent is our foremost weapon and deterrent… And that requires us to have a good relationship with the United States.’

Let that sink in.

Our nuclear deterrent is a source of strength and protection. But the prime minister was forced to admit it is also a source of dependency. When our interests and goals diverge from those of the United States, as they increasingly do, that dependency becomes a constraint. 

READ MORE: ‘The government’s UK-Ukraine defence deal has promise, but must go further to keep Europe and the UK safe’

It makes it difficult to fully support allies against US coercion; to fend off demands to put British sailors in harm’s way for a war with Iran that isn’t of our making; and to protect vital strategic interests like our military bases in Cyprus – made targets by our perceived complicity in US military action.

The impact of this constraint is just starting to be felt. As the US diverges further from the international order it once created, Britain’s ‘America problem’ will only deepen. We’ll increasingly be forced to choose between our nuclear security on the one hand, and our broader national interests and values on the other.

There is a way to escape this dilemma: nuclear independence. Not just the operational independence that we currently have, but structural independence. That means controlling not just how and when our nuclear weapons are used, but the development and sustainment of them too. Trident relies on missiles that are developed, produced, and maintained by the US. The submarines we use to launch them are British, as are the actual warheads. The missiles are the missing piece.

We cannot conjure up that capability overnight. Britain would need to create its own ballistic missile programme from scratch. The cost would be significant: tens of billions for development and billions more to sustain it each year once it’s operational. It would be more expensive than Trident, and it would take years to come to fruition. But if we are going to do it, the time to begin is now.

There is a window of opportunity emerging. President Macron has announced a new doctrine that Europeanises the French nuclear deterrent, extending its protection to other European countries. Britain could join this initiative and align its deterrent with a coordinated European framework beyond its existing NATO commitments.

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This could unlock cooperation on research and development with France, building on the Northwood Declaration in 2025, while defraying some of the costs via financial burden-sharing with non-nuclear European beneficiaries. Crucially, this is not about substituting one dependency for another, but about pooling knowledge, financing, and capability without surrendering sovereignty.

This will help, but it will not solve the cost problem by itself. A new independent deterrent would compete for funding with numerous other projects that are needed to address Britain’s military capability deficits. That’s why it should be part of the wider conversation on defence financing that is already happening. Peter Hain called for a defence bond on LabourList in January. This is necessary and important, but I wouldn’t call it a defence bond. I would call it an autonomy bond.

The two issues – defence and autonomy – are now inextricably linked as a result of Trump ushering in a new era of international disorder. The Labour government understandably finds it difficult to accept that link. But accepting it could unlock much greater public support for rearmament – the kind of support needed to make it possible at speed and scale.

Doing so also presents significant political advantages. The Liberal Democrats are consistently outflanking Labour on defence issues, including on reversing cuts to the army, defence financing, and now on nuclear independence as well. A big, bold commitment on defence autonomy, with an independent nuclear deterrent as the centrepiece, will blunt the impact of this manoeuvring. Meanwhile, it will force the Greens to explain to the public why they think unilateral disarmament is a good idea in the face of Russian threats and US unpredictability.

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There will be those who prefer cautious restraint in responding to Britain’s mounting security predicament. I understand that instinct. But there is an opportunity, and I think an imperative, to do more. I believe part of our current national malaise is that we’ve stopped believing we can do big things. Labour should show that we can.

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