‘Starmer has a comms line on Iran, not a strategy. Here’s what he should do’

As the US-Israeli war on Iran moves into its third week, Sir Keir Starmer remains in an uncomfortable position. Not only has the Prime Minister had to respond to drone strikes, an oil crisis and cabinet leaks, but he finds himself publicly rebuked, belittled  and cut adrift by a President in whom he has expended significant political capital. He says he is “providing calm, level-headed leadership” in the face of chaos. But to what end? 

Starmer probably wasn’t too upset about the Churchill jibe; he wants to be a rules-based decision maker, not a wartime figurehead. But while his Labour Government has been depressingly uninspiring at home, he has won plaudits on the international stage. He has been unerring on Ukraine, and until very recently has enjoyed relative success in sensitively handling the UK’s closest defence and security ally despite its erratic leadership. How he’s perceived by the White House clearly matters hugely to his sense of how effective Britain can be in the world. 

But the real issue isn’t whether Sir Keir is in favour from one day to the next. What matters far more is that the UK is directionless on Iran. It doesn’t have a strategy; it has a comms line. “Protecting British interests and British lives” isn’t a serious articulation of what responsible global leadership looks like, without which Starmer risks becoming an irrelevance. 

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Let’s start with what Starmer is doing. Since Davos, he’s been under pressure to stand up to Trump – more Carney and less Blair. He also wants to reassert international law, something he didn’t lose too much sleep over on Gaza or Venezuela. The spectre of Iraq looms perhaps larger still. Thus follow his Commons statement rejecting “regime change from the skies” and his decision not to allow UK airbases to be used in initial “offensive” strikes but to open them up for “defensive” actions the following day. 

Clearly Britain must protect its own interests. This makes sense in relation to protecting assets in Cyprus, insulating consumers from market dives and a chokehold on Hormuz, and repatriating expats and holidaymakers from the Gulf. But this conflict still has the capacity to escalate like few others and “Britain first” (to paraphrase) risks looking parochial and overly nationalistic. 

So, what should the UK’s approach be? 

Starmer is right to defend international law but he must recognise wars rarely meet a legal threshold; most are prosecuted with appeals to justice rather than law and this one is widely considered a “war of choice”. US justifications have been many and contradicting but, perhaps worse, there is no plan. Israel cares only about rendering Iran a state of permanent disarray. Right now, therefore, Starmer must focus less on the offensive versus defensive legalese. He must interrogate this war’s objectives, while framing his own around pillars of humanitarianism, multilateralism, security and peace.

Most people, not least Iranians inside and outside their country, want to see the back of this murderous regime. It is right that there should be consequences for the barbaric slaughter of popular dissent in January. But assassinations and aerial obliteration will not undo, let alone replace, a deep-rooted theocracy that deals in fear.

Britain must therefore focus on preventing civilian killings, including those rapidly mounting in Lebanon. It must work more effectively than ever before with regional partners to stabilise a situation which continues to threaten global catastrophe and has no clear endgame. As for dealing with Trump, this demands not just distancing but confronting and convincing. Doing this with sensitivity and discretion is an unenviable challenge for which Sir Keir may be uniquely placed. 

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The UK must seek to mitigate chaos. It must work to shore up fragile neighbours that risk being torn further apart by the fallout. Iraq and Syria should be top of the list as the former tries to stabilise after dictatorship, invasion, civil war and ISIS and the latter navigates ethnic and sectarian division in its own post-conflict reality. These are hard-won but carefully poised situations, and they represent influential levers in the culture, politics and economies of the region. Hundreds of billions have been spent – and countless lives have been squandered – to get them to this point. Britain should unite international resolve not to let the recklessness of this moment undo them.

In setting out his position, Starmer must demonstrate an acute historical awareness. Britain has a particularly uncomfortable history of interference in Iran. Depicted in popular memory as “old fox” or “little Satan”, it has historically exploited resources and undermined democratic movements in Iran. Britain now needs to stand for trust, transparency and integrity. It must help Iranian people, but it must not meddle in their affairs nor support division and further bloodshed.

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Finally, the UK has made Ukraine its defining foreign policy cause. With all eyes on the Gulf, Starmer must make sure that Kyiv is not forgotten or ignored, especially by the White House. Putin no doubt sees an opportunity in Washington’s distraction, just as Xi may see one in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Now is the time to redouble efforts to force a settlement, not abandon the fray.

These are nuanced and difficult positions to take. But now is precisely when grown-ups are needed. Britain could and should do so much more than be left by the wayside. 

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