‘The case for rearmament is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore’

Earlier this week, to the evident relief of the Ministry of Defence, the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon finally set sail for Cyprus—eleven days after the first missiles struck Iran. 

The ship leaves behind a domestic political debate that continues to rage, with much of the right-wing commentariat lining up to criticise Keir Starmer for refusing to involve Britain directly in the conflict. Kemi Badenoch has already accused the prime minister of being “too scared to make foreign interventions”, while the Daily Mail declared that “Starmer takes the ‘Great’ out of Great Britain”.

As with all ongoing conflicts, it is too early to judge whether the government’s caution will prove wise. Yet public opinion suggests little appetite for another Middle Eastern entanglement. Polling by YouGov on 9th May found that 57 per cent of Britons opposed the war, an increase of 10% from the week before.

In truth, however, the political argument hides a more uncomfortable reality. Even if Starmer had wanted to take a more active role, Britain would be in little position to do so. Fifteen years of spending cuts under the last Conservative government combined with procurement failures and the demands of supporting Ukraine have hollowed out our armed forces. Today, the United Kingdom struggles to protect the military assets it still possesses, let alone project meaningful power across the globe.

READ MORE: ‘Security in the 21st century means more than just defence’

The Royal Navy illustrates the problem starkly. A 2016 report by the House of Commons Defence Select Committee described the then Navy’s fleet of thirteen frigates as “woefully low” and “well below the critical mass required”. Yet earlier this year the Ministry of Defence quietly confirmed that HMS Richmond will be retired, reducing the number of active frigates to just six.

The submarine fleet tells a similar story. At present, only one attack submarine—HMS Anson—is actively at sea. The rest are undergoing maintenance or upgrades, and Anson herself is currently deployed in Australia, roughly 5,000 miles from the Middle East.

Given this uncomfortable reality, it is almost remarkable that the Royal Navy was able to dispatch a warship to Cyprus within a fortnight.

The same pattern can be seen across the wider military. London is currently outside the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, but if it were not, Britain would have already exhausted its tiny stocks of interceptor missiles on which countries in the Middle East have been forced to rely.

For that reason, the case for rearmament is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. 

Since taking office, Labour has taken steps in the right direction, launching a Defence Industrial Strategy and pledging to increase military expenditure. But progress remains slow, and the Treasury has resisted calls to loosen the purse strings.

The events of the past fortnight demonstrate why delay carries huge risks. Even though Britain was not involved in the initial strikes, its bases in Cyprus have nonetheless become targets. The perception that the United Kingdom cannot adequately defend these installations has prompted calls from Cypriots for the bases to be removed. Losing this strategic foothold would be a severe blow to Britain’s ability to gather intelligence and safeguard vital shipping routes.

Meanwhile, away from the headlines, Russia continues its relentless assault on Ukraine, targeting civilians and infrastructure with little restraint. No one should be under any illusion: Vladimir Putin poses a genuine threat not only to Britain’s European allies but also to the United Kingdom itself, through cyber attacks, sabotage, and other forms of grey-zone warfare.

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Nonetheless, it’s easy to see why Labour have been hesitant about fully committing to rearmament and allocating the resources required. The recent by-election in Gorton and Denton shows that Labour faces threats from the left as well as from the right. Many of the voters who helped propel the more pacifist Green party to victory would baulk at the idea of spending on guns and bombs when so many domestic problems remain.

Yet now is the time for Labour to make a confident, progressive case for rebuilding the armed forces. In an increasingly hostile world, the ability to deter war through strength means that far less blood is shed. At the same time, if done properly, defence investment can help deliver the high-skill, high-wage jobs the government says it wants to create.

According to ADS, the defence industry’s trade body—admittedly not an impartial observer—the sector already employs 181,000 people and generates almost £83,000 of economic output per worker. With careful planning, the economic benefits of defence spending could bring good jobs and much needed investment to deprived areas and help level up whole regions. 

Public opinion is also shifting. Even before the recent Iran war, YouGov reported that 31 per cent of voters supported increasing defence spending, up from just 10 per cent five years ago.

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Nonetheless, the government—and especially the Treasury—must move faster. The threats are real and they are growing. Labour must take control of the narrative and make clear that rebuilding Britain’s defences is not a retreat into militarism and a return to foreign interventions, but a necessary investment in national security, economic growth and the stability on which everything else depends.

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