‘Still all to play for’: Scottish Labour candidates defiant despite polls

Elections for Holyrood are now less than four weeks away – and if you look purely on the polls alone, the shape of things to come does not look promising for Labour. After being neck-and-neck with the SNP around the time of the general election, Scottish Labour have slipped to roughly 16 points behind the unpopular incumbent.

And yet, from my time in Scotland, I can say that that doesn’t seem to tell the full story of what is going on here. For one, Scottish Labour’s candidates are fully motivated and determined to defy the polls once again. They remember the thunderous results in the Rutherglen by-election in 2023 and, even more recently, the Hamilton by-election for Holyrood last year – where Labour confounded expectations and won against all odds.

There is also the mood on the doorstep. People I’ve heard from have expressed no love for the SNP, even among some previously staunch supporters of the party. One woman who had a SNP sticker in her car said she was thinking twice this time over the state of public transport in her area. There also seems to be a solid Scottish Labour vote that is holding up – combined with a sense among candidates that, as election day nears, ‘squeeze messaging’ about the election being a two-horse race will have a greater effect.

That’s not to say that everything is perfect here; candidates have said there is a dissatisfaction with the UK government and a sense that nothing works for them. Recent polling from YouGov showed that, while people are dissatisifed with the Scottish government, they have even less support for the government in Westminster. One candidate did confess that there is an attitude among some of “if only” the election had been 18 months earlier.

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In our interview with Daniel Johnson, he acknowledged the challenge of presenting Scottish Labour as the party of change while being in power nationally. He said Anas Sarwar’s decision to put distance between the Scottish party and the UK government has helped in that effort, as well as stressing the necessity for Scottish Labour to, at times, take a divergent view from the party south of the border.

As the campaign kicks off in earnest, Scottish Labour see this election as the chance for years to get rid of the SNP and prevent another decade of SNP decline. It’s Scottish Labour’s chance to get the basics right for millions of Scots, from fixing the potholes to making Scotland’s public services fit for the future and having an NHS that works for everyone, free of waiting lists spirling out of control. That’s what drives each of the campaigners and activists we have spoken to – and they’re prepared to throw everything at that effort. As almost every candidate has said to us along the way, “it’s still all to play for”.

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