‘Labour has work to do to regain the trust of Prospect members’

Prospect is a politically independent union, but it would be a mistake to believe we are not invested in the success of this government. Prospect members vote across the spectrum, but many of the current government’s policies align with our values and objectives.

The government is in the process of rolling out the largest upgrade to worker and trade union rights in a generation, but the likely alternative represents an existential threat to trade unions and rights at work. It is increasingly clear that a government of the Right, whether Reform or Conservative or some combination of the two, would launch an all-out assault on workers and unions. They would not stop at repealing the Employment Rights Act 2025 (ERA), but go much further, attacking core union rights like facility time, and dismantling hard-won pension rights for public sector workers. No union can contemplate this outcome without a determination that it must not happen. This is the prism through which we view the outcome of the local and devolved elections and subsequent debates about leadership. Any time lost now implementing the ERA benefits only employers intent on avoiding union access and worker voice.

The irony is that the prospect of a Reform assault on working people is only possible because Labour is losing the support of the very workers who powered its election victory. A survey of Prospect members conducted just before the recent elections found that support for Labour has more than halved in two years, from 44% just before the 2024 general election, to 16% now. These are people who, in many ways, are the exact voters you would expect a Labour government to appeal to. They are highly educated and work in specialist functions across the public and private sectors, often in industries the government is championing such as clean energy and defence. They are broadly progressive, overwhelmingly voted Remain, and are union members at a time when the government is more pro-union than any in recent history.

READ MORE: ‘Those who aspire to lead Labour must be clear about the party’s responsibilities to working people’

Labour is not predominantly losing Prospect members to the right. Our survey found 11% of members support Reform, only up marginally from 2024. Instead, the Labour vote has fractured in multiple directions. Some going to Plaid and the SNP, some to the Lib Dems, but by far the largest groups are those that have gone to the Greens and to Don’t Know. In fact, more of our members who voted for this government in 2024 said they were intending to vote for the Greens than Labour, with a similar number on the fence. These two groups are the people Labour, and whoever leads them into the next election, needs to win over. Business as usual is not enough, it is clear a fundamental change in approach is needed. 

There are five things I think Labour could practically do to win back Prospect members over the coming years, and if it does come to a leadership election these are some of the things we would want to hear from anyone seeking to lead the country.

First up is the cost of living and inflation which are the biggest priorities for our members, as they are for voters in general. Some of that is out of the government’s control due to international events, but there are some levers it can pull. They can give fair pay rises to public sector workers and make the principled argument for doing this even when it implies some other tough choices. Targeted support on energy bills would also help the lowest paid and dampen some of the inflationary impact of the energy price spike.

Second, they must make more of the genuinely transformational impact of the ERA and of the dividing line on rights at work. We are currently in an awkward period where the Act has passed but its effects have not been felt by anyone yet. We know these measures are popular in theory, but they will not move voters unless they are seen and felt. It is essential that the government not only delivers the remaining measures on time, but that they do so loudly and unapologetically. They are facing opponents who are committed to rolling back rights and have derided the idea of work-life balance. This agenda is an obvious cornerstone of the Labour message. Moreover extension of collective bargaining is the key means by which wages can rise and economic insecurity be addressed for the long term.

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Third, they can be clearer about their vision for the economy. Prospect members work in some of the most dynamic and growing parts of the economy; from tech to renewables, from the creative industries to defence. These are the sectors that the government prioritised in its industrial strategy last year, but if you ask our members very few would know that fact and even fewer will have seen any tangible impact of this strategy. The central promise of the industrial strategy is more, better jobs in these key industries, yet so far only one of the sectors has actually delivered a jobs plan. This must change, and the industrial strategy needs to be made real to workers if it is going to mean anything. This must involve publishing an ambitious defence investment plan as soon as possible.

Fourth, we need a government that stands up for the public sector. One of the key groups of Prospect members who have moved away from Labour over the last couple of years are our members in the public sector, predominantly civil servants. There are several reasons for this, but it hasn’t helped that the government often seems embarrassed about defending public sector workers. That is not to say that the government should not be serious about public sector reform, it absolutely should, but too often we have seen a tendency to indulge in lazy attacks on civil servants, such as the Prime Minister’s infamous ‘tepid bath’ speech. Similarly, the ‘blockers’ rhetoric about regulators has left the skilled professionals who do this vital work feeling underappreciated and bruised. With Reform and the Tories constantly attacking public sector workers there is a chance for the government to vocally champion public service, showing public servants that it respects and values them. When the Right are trying to pit private sector workers against their public sector neighbours, we need a government that challenges this narrative. There is no benefit for private sector workers in an attack on public sector terms and conditions.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, our members need to see more clearly that this is a government that shares their values and is brave enough to fight for them. They see the country and the world moving in a dangerous direction and want to see their government resisting that trend. This is not a call for gesture politics, but there are issues where the government could be louder –  like on climate; or where they could embrace a much bolder position such as on Europe. There are others where they should change course entirely, like on legal migration and settlement where the current approach is both alienating voters and undermining economic growth in key sectors. 

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Our members are not going to listen to Labour again until they see that Labour is listening to them.

Local and national elections are not always great predictors of the future, but that is partly because they offer parties the chance to hear messages and change course before it is too late. I do not believe the government has lost the support of Prospect members permanently, but there is work to do in order to regain trust and rebuild support. That must start now.

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