Poll List: New numbers show Labour could win most seats

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new Ipsos-Mori poll for tomorrow’s Telegraph has the following voting intention amongst those “absolutely certain to vote”: Conservative: 37%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 19%.

The UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator shows that, translated uniformly to a general election, Labour would be the largest party in the new Parliament, with 293 seats to the Tories’ 277. Labour would be 33 seats short of a working majority.

The legitimacy of uniform swings is dubious, however, particularly in this election with Lord Ashcroft’s investment in marginals – as well as boundary and demographic changes – likely to cause unpredictable changes compared with previous elections.

But this poll, along with the recent favourable trends for Labour – which currently appears to be the party with momentum – should help mobilise activists. It is likely that, going into the election and with margins of error, the race will be very tight indeed — and the result will depend on which party can mobilise its vote best on the day.

Also in the poll, 60% of voters say the TV debates will play an important role in the way they decide to vote.