Poll List: YouGov poll shows mixed results

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

In a YouGov poll for yesterday’s Telegraph, Labour continued its trend of slightly improved numbers, again gaining an overall net increase on the Tories of four points. The poll follows other recent improvements for Labour in the national voting intention, in the Com-Res poll for the Independent a month ago and the Ipsos-Mori poll for the Observer last week.

In these latest numbers, Labour has gained two points, with the Tories dropping two, while the Liberal Democrats have gained one.

Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report says:

“On a uniform swing this would leave the Conservatives just short of an overall majority, and being a far more plausible figures than the extreme swing in MORI’s poll, I’d expect this to further fuel the media speculation about a hung Parliament.”

According to the swing calculator, these numbers would indeed result in a hung Parliament. The Tories would end up with 323 seats, 3 short of a working majority, while Labour would retain 248.

However, the national survey doesn’t give the whole picture and there are worrying signs that the party is losing support in key northern marginal seats. In a separate YouGov survey of voters in 32 of those seats in the north west, north east and Yorkshire and Humberside, the Tories lead by 42% to 36% in seats currently held by Labour – an increase of 8% for the Tories and drop of 8% for Labour and enough for all 32 to fall into Tory hands.

As always, it’s in those key marginals where the election will be won and lost.