Brown became PM as Labour’s most towering figure – the party must rally round him if it’s to stand a chance of winning

By James Macintyre / @NewStatesman

As Parliament rises, Gordon Brown will be hoping that this summer is not like the last, which saw a non-stop frenzy about his leadership of the Labour party. He has reason to be cautiously optimistic: David Miliband, source of so much speculation last year, remains firmly loyal to the Prime Minister. His decision to stay in government on the night James Purnell resigned last month confirms what those who know him have long known: he will not challenge Brown. Purnell, too, is heading into the party conference season intent on aiding an open debate on the left, rather than whipping up rebellion against Number Ten. Alan Johnson was “locked in” by his move to the Home Office. And the man who could have brought down Brown by resigning, Alistair Darling, has – just about – been kept on-side with his last-minute retention of the Chancellorship, the importance of which to Brown’s survival cannot be overstated.

On the other hand, arch-rebels – mainly former so-called “Blairites” – continue to deny the leadership issue is resolved. Insiders still float the idea of Brown stepping down voluntarily in the autumn if he can find a narrative that allows him to leave with honour, having saved the British economy and withdrawn, with grace, to make way for a more electable leader. Those who seek this outcome even go so far as to go into detail: Brown would have to ensure there would be no divisive leadership contest, gaining an assurance from potential candidates – notably Ed Balls – that they will not run. After all a contest were it to erupt today could involve, at least, Balls, Jon Cruddas, David Miliband, Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson and Jack Straw.

What the plotters fail to answer is who could be the beneficiary of Labour’s second “smooth transition” in one term. Brown became Prime Minister as the towering Labour figure of his generation; now there is no such consensus around a successor. Further, it is surely mistaken to believe that Brown will be in a position of strength to rein in those who want to run. Would Ed Balls, especially after being denied the Treasury job he has sought for a year, continue to obey his old master and allow – say – Miliband to take over?

Instead, if Labour is to recover, it has no option now but to unite around Brown and turn its fire on the Conservatives. LabourList has shown itself more aware than most ministers of how to articulate the case against David Cameron’s un-modernised party. Now Labour as a whole must follow suit. Ministers should remember over the fragile summer period which precedes conference, that if they are not helping Brown, they are helping Cameron.

I have been in a minority of roughly one or two journalists in the country who has maintained throughout his turbulent two-year premiership, that Brown will stay on to fight the general election next year (as well as that the election can still be won). Yet I am far from unaware of his many faults. Brown has a split personality: the “better angels” of an earnest man who went into politics for the right reasons, are too often eclipsed by his dark side as epitomised by the ruthless briefings that have left a number of loyal allies badly bruised. Equally, the questions over his electability Peter Mandelson laid out in his famous 1994 fax to Brown, still apply.

However, the reality is that Brown is here to stay. Nothing in his past or his personality suggests he will step down voluntarily – and he will not be challenged by a serious contender for the leadership. It may not be ideal for all, but Labour’s only hope is that Brown’s intellect and magisterial grasp of the one area that will most determine the election result – the economy – will save the day. Meanwhile, Brown must urgently find a radical constitutional agenda that incorporates electoral reform, to bring leftwards the centre of gravity in British politics once and for all, and – less nobly – attract the Liberal Democrats in the wake of a hung Parliament.

The Tories are there for the taking. Contrary to popular wisdom, the next election is not over; it has not yet even begun. But if Labour is to stand a chance at retaining office, it must now rally round. There really is no alternative.