London’s commuter belt – the key to government?

By Gareth Thomas MP

It is the London commuterbelt that holds the key to whether Labour will get back through Whitehall’s closed doors after the next election and therefore quite rightly Ed Miliband has made the South a key focus. A large number of key marginal seats in the South are part of London’s commuterbelt:- the Enfields, Gravesends and Croydons. If we develop a narrative that helps us to win in these seats we will have an agenda to help us win again in other parts of the country too.

Polling analysis by YouGov’s Peter Kellner for my recent pamphlet “The Age of Anxiety” demonstrates that we have a considerable amount of further work to do to convince commuterbelt voters as well as the country at large that the next Labour government will lead to higher living standards, more jobs and better public services, and not more red tape, uncontrolled immigration and higher taxes. Whilst expectations that a majority Conservative government would lead to fewer jobs and worse public services provide fertile territory for our growing critique of the Tory-led government’s economic, schools and NHS policy, it is clear this will not be enough. Less than 18 months after a major election defeat this should dispel any lingering notions in the wider party that opposing Tory cuts and waiting for yet more coalition mistakes will be enough.

Ed Miliband has rightly set out to overhaul party policy wanting our Policy Review to prioritise how to help the squeezed middle, how to rebuild strong communities and how to help reverse the increasing fear that the next generation won’t do better than ours. For those contributing to that Policy Review, understanding the nuances in priorities between the commuterbelt and the rest of the country will be fundamental in helping Labour to use the Policy Review to reverse the drift away of for example suburban voters.

The polling does point to a series of further opportunities for Labour. Over a year into a Tory-led government the strength of the anxiety across the country that those polled feel about their own and their families’ future is striking. With almost two-thirds of people worried that they will find it harder to make ends meet and only just over a third confident that they will have opportunities to prosper in the near future, our priority must be to continue to speak for the sense of anxiety and insecurity about personal and family futures that too many of our fellow citizens feel at the moment.

Labour will have to respond to the appetite for lower taxes which almost half saw as a priority for making life better for them and their families and which in turn appear essential to help further the process of rebuilding confidence across the electorate that Labour speaks for people like them. Ed Balls’ campaign against the increase in VAT is therefore a particularly sensible move.

Co-ops and mutuals are increasingly demonstrating that a ‘better capitalism’ is possible. Discussion with former Labour voters revealed an appetite for co-operative and mutual solutions. More care co-ops, credit unions, renewable energy co-ops and football supporters trusts are all examples of the resurgence in the co-op idea. Involving people in decision making, greater transparency, clear ethical values and a genuine interest in sustainability are all associated with a Co-operative and mutual approach and are a significant part of the renewed growth and success of the Co-op Group and John Lewis.

London’s commuterbelt with its host of key marginal seats will be the crucial testing ground for our organisation and narrative for the next general election. As we contribute to the Policy Review it is essential that we understand how the electorate are thinking; their views of our past record as well as their fears about our opponents. We must respond to the considerable anxiety felt in the commuterbelt, but also felt nationally, about the future. Whilst the polling revealed that voters are sceptical about the prospects of a majority Conservative government and whilst we can be pleased about the party’s recent recovery, we still have more to do to prove our worth again.