Tony Blair’s instincts on the Euro were right

June 20, 2012 3:45 pm

Monday’s extract from the latest tranche of Alastair Campbell’s diaries , The Burden of Power: Countdown to Iraq, published in the “Guardian” is very telling on the Euro question.

According to Campbell, Blair was well and truly thwarted by Brown. What is more, Tony Blair feared “we were making the wrong decision for the wrong reasons”.

While the bickering, not to say in-fighting, between Blair and Brown as told by Alastair Campbell makes depressing reading, there is no doubt in my mind that Tony Blair’s instincts on the Euro were right, even in the light of the current crisis in the Eurozone.

When British commentators talk about the Euro they all, almost without exception, take a congratulatory, not to say patronising, tone. The UK is deemed to have done the right thing by staying outside the Euro. We are not, after all, embroiled in the current economic problems.

Except of course, we are. The recession is deeper here than elsewhere in the EU. Britain’s double dip recession matches the economic problems of almost any save the most deficient Eurozone country. Unemployment in the UK stands at 8.4% . This is higher than Germany at 5.4% and Holland and Luxembourg (5.2%) . True, there are also very high unemployment in the Eurozone, especially in the member states facing huge problems such as Greece and Spain where the rates are in the low twenties. Overall, the Eurozone total in 11.2%, more than Britain, but not much more given that the peripheral countries are in such difficulties.

As readers of this blog know, I very much support what was the Tony Blair position on the Euro in 2003, the year Campbell features. In a world where economies are intertwined, it would have made a lot of political sense for the UK to join the Euro at that time.

The UK has once again failed to join the European project at the right time. Former Permanent Representative to the EU Sir Stephen Wall is quite clear in his excellent book “A Stranger in Europe” that Britain would have not faced many of the issues it found itself dealing with regarding the European Union if we had been there at the beginning rather than leaving it until 1973 to join.

The same, I fear, will happen in relation to the Euro. If a country is not there at the start they stand to miss out on crucial decisions, finding that the architecture has been put in place without their input. This is, of course, why the UK is uncomfortable with some aspects of the European Union, especially when it comes to agriculture.

The Eurozone seems to be going in the direction of some kind of banking union. This will obviously have an effect on the City of London. Being outside whatever kind of union emerges may well prove problematic for our financial services industry. We in Britain should ask ourselves whether we really want a powerful neighbour with a unified banking system which will be able to challenge, not to say get the better of, our most important industry.

 Mary Honeyball is a Labour MEP for London. This post was originally published here.
  • Gollum Van Rompuy

    Please tell me that this is a joke.

    If it’s not a joke, then the people of London need a reality check for electing you as their MEP.

    • Winston_from_the_Ministry

      Guess what….

      • Gollum Van Rompuy

        What?

        • Winston_from_the_Ministry

          It’s not.

    • http://twitter.com/doggywoggydooda doggywoggy

      Nobody voted for her. They voted for the party whose list she happened to be on. They voted for the red rosette, because they have no independent rational thought process of their own. They vote labour because it is labour and it is what they must do, no matter what!

  • George

    Currious, are the problems in Spain and Greece nothing to do with the euro? Or is it too much public spending? You can not have it both ways.

    • Lembit Opik’s Lovechild

       Actually you can.

      The Euro produced artificially low interest rates  against which countries like Greece and Italy borrowed to finance debt. This debt was used to conceal massive failures to collect taxes, inefficencies in indusrty and the like. In Greece and Italy, the Euro beggered the state.  In Ireland and Spain the low interest rates dictated by  the Euro allowed a massive expansion in housing, paid for by banks loaning out money at unsustainably low rates. Once the crisis hit and the housing bubble burst then the banks couldn’t recover the money they had loaned out as the values of the properties built had fallen dramatically. here the Euro buggered the banks.  As they were too big to fail the state had to bail out the banks and buy the bad debt. This pushed up state lending rates, requiring  money to be pumped in by the EMF and the EU under punitive conditions.

      In all these cases the fundamental cause was an excess of cheap money based upon interest rates set to satisfy Germany but the equivelent to handing the keys to the off licence to a bunch of drunks.

      • http://www.facebook.com/david.humphries.967 David Humphries

         Errm, have you ever heard of a little thing called personal responsibility? Tesco’s food is cheap, very cheap in fact and very tasty. If I began gorging on a 10,000 calorie a day diet you you blame Tesco for ‘plying’ me with all this cheap food or would you tell me to grip and eat less?

        Yes the Euro lowered IRs, it was up to the individual Eurozone members to decide what to do with these savings though. The Euro isn’t to blame for their terrible decision making.

  • charles.ward

    Strange to hear Mary Honeyball defending the UK financial services industry when she and the other Labour MEPs voted for the imposition of a financial transaction tax designed to harm the UK financial sector.  What’s the point of being involved in European policy decisions when you don’t stick up for British interests?

    Us not being part of the Euro didn’t cause our financial services sector to move to the Eurozone, as many Europhiles predicted.  Why should we believe them now when they say the same thing about a banking union?

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Max-Smith/1482640843 Max Smith

      “What’s the point of being involved in European policy decisions when you don’t stick up for British interests?”

      The idea that Labour MEPs got involved in European politics to stand up for British interests is hilarious.

      They nourish their typically fatuous warm glow of left-wing moral superiority by opposing British interests at every opportunity. It makes them feel like they are being altruistic. They love being charitable with our sovereignty.

  • George

    Charles, good point – we look forward to Labour MEPs opposition to the Financial Transaction Tax….. hmmm, I think the eulolanders should be grateful the £ was not in – as it would have led to the biggest bust of them all – far bigger than Ireland.

  • MonkeyBot5000

    Your position only makes sense if you take it as given that we will eventually join the Euro. Even then it’s a pretty lame argument. But, as you’re a passenger on the EU gravy train, it’s unsurprising.

    …our most important industry.

    The City of London is not our most important industry. It’s a casino populated by people who’ve managed to convince themselves that they’re not gamblers.

  • Homf

    I would say it was the other way round. Instinctively I am a strong pro European unlike many of my left leaning colleagues. In principle I still am. I like the idea of a federal Europe which would offer possibilities for social transformation.
    However it is clear that the Euro was very badly thought through. A single currency needs fiscal union as well as a single Market. Weaker members need to be helped and supported by the stronger. And it needs to be viewed within a keynesian prism of investment and development. Clearly that is not the case and Gordon’s reticence was right. I was wrong – I actively campaigned for the Euro

    • http://www.facebook.com/matthew.blott Matthew Blott

      Nice to see you disguising yourself Mike Homfray. Are you worried your credibility will be dented if you’re outed as a pro euro nut?

      • Mike Homfray

        Blame my IPhone ! No, anything but, I’ve always been very pro-European and still am. Unlike you Progress types I’m independent minded and make my mind up on each individual issue rather than accepting what the Central Committee tell me.

        • jaime taurosangastre candelas

          Would you have bought your iPhone if it had to be developed and built in the UK?  You have previously strongly advocated protectionism and a retreat from a global economy.  Whatever an iPhone costs, it would be 5 times more expensive if it were an entirely British product.

          Dave Postles also has an informed and passionate view on Apple as exploiters of near-slave labour in their supply chain.  I know nothing of mobile phones as my 6 year old Nokia is a matter of supreme indifference to me and turned on once every month or so, but I do own an Apple computer because I find them easier to use, but bought before Dave informed me of Apple’s very murky underbelly and supply arrangements.I’m very surprised that someone with your views owns an iPhone.  It seems to undermine your logic in broader arguments.

  • AnotherOldBoy

    This is staggeringly daft!

    It is no surprise to see that Ms Honeyball is an MEP.  No doubt she does not wish to bite the hand that feeds her so generously.  But is she living on another planet?

    Let’s just try this one for size: “The recession is deeper here than elsewhere in the EU.”

    Right, what about Greece?  It’s GDP shrank by 6.2% in the first quarter of this year alone.

    What about Italy?  It did rather better than Greece, with GDP falling only by 1.5% this year.

    Then there is the small matter of “cuts/austerity”.  The level of cuts needed in Eire, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece is far greater than the much-overstated cuts in the UK.

    Ms Honeyball might consider the case of Eire, a county which “enjoyed” a property boom as low interest rates (fixed to reflect the German economy, not the Irish) sucked in money.  When the bubble burst, Eire suffered a massive fall in GDP, high unemployment and the ignominy of having to borrow from the EU in order to pay back German banks.  Now it has unemployment of over 14%.

    And I wouldn’t worry too much about the possibility of banking union within the Eurozone.  There is some way to go before that happens.  The City of London manages to get plenty of business from the US, which has a currency and banking union.   Euroenthusiasts like Ms Honeyball were warning that the City would lose out if we did not join or remain in the ERM in the late 80s/early 90s and then that we would miss out if we did not join the Euro in the mid to late 90s.  They were wrong then and they are wrong now.

    Those of us who have always regarded the Euro as a doomed project dictated by politics rather than economics take no pleasure out of the fact that we were right and that Ms Honeyball and Mr Blair were utterly, completely wrong.  As Ms Honyball says, we are all stuck with the reesulting mess.  There is nothing for those who were right to gloat about.  But much for those who were wrong to apologise for.

    A period of silent reflection on the part of Ms Honeyball would not be amiss.

  • D Burgess

    There are some very simplistic arguments here, notably the spurious analogy between EEC/EC/EU and Euro membership. In hindsight it’s clear that the Euro was a project whose unintended consequences – especially socially austere consequences on poorer groups and states – were overlooked and that many of the arguments put over by the sceptical right had something to them, especially as regards democracy. It surely is time for the centre- left to take a hard pragmatic view of the EU and the Euro and think more radically and more deeply about both. Tony Blair’s best legacy was a tough minded ability to break with existing dogma.

    Your quoting of unemployment figures is selective and meaningless – there are a multitude of factors that determine it, not just Euro (non-)membership.
    I can only endorse earlier comments about your City First argument.

    • AnotherOldBoy

      Quite – one expects better of a product of Pate’s Grammar School, Cheltenham and Somerville College, Oxford.

  • Chilbaldi

    And if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.

    Yes in that dreamy time of relative prosperity Euro membership would have been good. But by 2008 it would have been truly awful, and the same economic events would have occurred.

    Mary – this is up with that awful anti all religion article you wrote a few years ago.

    • Hannah

      “Mary – this is up with that awful anti all religion article you wrote a few years ago.”

      Ironic really, given the content of this article.

  • Bernard

    The Euro is a train wreck. Politicians deliberately obfuscated the data to avoid having to put difficult decisions (like the question of fiscal integration) in front of their electorates and have a system which will fail spectacularly sooner (and less painfully) or later (and more painfully).

    Britain will indeed be hurt by that, because our main trading partners will see their economies going into meltdown and that will inevitably affect us, but things would be much worse for us if we were in the Euro (as we’ll soon see when a French economy that’s stronger than ours in many ways gets dragged down by its attachment to the Eurozone).

    There’s a wider point that’s important to note here. While institutional incompetence is a key factor in the Eurozone being so badly off, the unwillingness of electorates to accept political reality plays a role too. The western world as a whole (and europe in particular) is in a similar situation to where South America was at the turn of the 20th century. We’ve got used to being among the richest countries in the world and we expect that to continue regardless of how much we produce. With limited resources and rapidly industrialising economies across the world, Greece won’t be the only country in which politicians use imported credit to maintain a standard of living that the output base doesn’t support for as long as possible until the credit is withdrawn and things implode.

    Our vague and unspoken idea that the world owes us an elevated standard of living regardless of our productivity is one that will prove very painful once reality sets in.

    • http://twitter.com/doggywoggydooda doggywoggy

       In addition to France being dragged into the abyss by the Euro, when they introduce 75% tax, we will suddenly see a surge of French industry moving here.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/pcaldato Paolo Caldato

    Thank you for illustrating so graphically yet another reason why Labour should not be allowed back into Government.

    • treborc1

      Well to be honest your making a bloody mess as well.

      • http://www.facebook.com/pcaldato Paolo Caldato

        Please do not send me any more messages until you’ve learnt to use apostrophes properly. Cheers thx bye.

        • treborc1

           so funny ass hole

  • Nick

     Is she on crack?

  • tomthumb015

    With deluded UK Labour MEPs like this no wonder the majority of UK voters want a referendum and out of the bureaucratic and wasteful EU

  • Brumanuensis

    If there is one thing that would have hurt the UK’s recovery even more, it would be having interest rates at double what they are now. The monetary independence that the Pound gives has enabled the BoE to mitigate the effects of both the initial recession and subsequent fiscal contraction.

    It’s also a touch selective to quote German and Dutch unemployment figures, when the rate of the Eurozone as a whole is higher than ours.

    • AlanGiles

      Tony is always right, even when he is wrong.!

      • http://twitter.com/doggywoggydooda doggywoggy

         Yes, that’s why Cameron is doing his level best to copy him at every turn.

  • http://twitter.com/sprogglie Sprogglechops

    Upney …..

  • http://twitter.com/sprogglie Sprogglechops

    Next stop beyond Barking ….

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Max-Smith/1482640843 Max Smith

    “there is
    no doubt in my mind that Tony Blair’s instincts on the Euro were right”
    Jesus Christ. At least you don’t lack the courage of your convictions.

    I can only imagine what it would take to inject doubt about the EURO into your mind. Apparently mass unemployment and financial collapse doesn’t cut the mustard.

  • Stu

    I must confess I find what this woman has written quite deppressing. She either a thieving cynic living off the EU project or totally delusional. Either way we deserve more intelligent thinking and representation. To be honest I can’t be bothered fisking the idiotic drivel that Ms Honeyball has written it speaks for itself.

  • John Dore

    Whatever you’re being paid, its far 
    too much. This is absolute tripe, did you sit down and co author this with Partridge?

  • joe

    God you stupid stupid person

  • Bill Lockhart

    I guess there must be a nice fat committee gig or two going in  Brussels (Strasbourg during the truffle season).  Hope this article does the trick for Ms. Honeyball amongst her Socialist Group mates.

  • MonkeyBot5000

    Wow. I toned down my first comment as I thought it I might get modded if I told Mary she was a moron.

    I come back six hours later and find people from across the political spectrum saying the same thing. How do you guys expect me to be argumentative and contrarian if we keep agreeing?

    • Brumanuensis

      I’ll disagree MonkeyBot. Mary Honeyball is exactly on the money. The failure of the UK to join the Euro is an error of historic proportions.

      Do your worst… ;-)

  • http://twitter.com/chrisjwowen Chris Owen

    “Overall, the Eurozone total in 11.2%, more than Britain, but not much more given that the peripheral countries are in such difficulties.”

    This sentence is hilarious! Hahaha!

    Eurozone not so bad…UK is doing better…but not much better considering…(wait for it)…how bad Eurozone is doing! HAHA

    The whole reason why the Eurozone average is 11.2% is because it is an average i.e. it takes into account the whole picture. You can’t twist what averages by saying some of the data points causing that average are meerly “peripheral”.

    Oh…my…GOD! Hahaha

  • Dr Lobotomy

    What we have here my dears, is a clear case of SBS (Stupid Bitch Syndrome).

    • Daniel Speight

      And that, whether one agrees or disagrees with Mary, is childish and uncalled for.

  • Daniel Speight

    The problem isn’t the Euro, it’s the EU. Previous Tory and Labour governments have taking it away from the very reason it was formed for. (A bit like New Labour and the Labour Party.)

    However far you want to go back in its history, it was set up to be a defensive organization to protect the industry and agriculture of Western Europe from outside competition. It stopped being this and is now a beacon for free trade and market power*. Now the whole thing is falling down around the ears of its bureaucrats.

    Until the European project gets back on track again it’s really not worth even thinking about closer integration.

    * Afraid to say it, but that is very much a problem which was encouraged by British governments, with and without handbags.

  • hp

    The swivel-eyed loons are out in force this morning.

  • Jim_Watford

    oh my god, surely this is a light hearted comedy article? No one in their right mind would want to join the slow motion train wreck that  is the Euro.

  • JC

    This is a very good argument for being able to recall your councillor/MP/MEP. When they demonstrate such a level of understanding it would be good to make them stand for re-election to show they still have support. It’s also another argument against party lists, which would be used in an elected HoL.

    • OM

      Good arguments aren’t required in the EU.

  • jaime taurosangastre candelas

    I’m fairly sure that within a couple of years from now the Euro will be significantly different from what it is now, if not yet another example of a fiat currency that failed and then disappeared.  Now is most definitely not the time to join.

    You cannot have a single currency that works without full political and fiscal union.  Fiscal union cannot work by definition without a single central Government.  Banking union – not achieved to date – does not work without fiscal union, and currency union, an even more anaemic concept has so far only delivered confusion and now increasing misery and anger to the hundreds of millions of people living in the Eurozone.

    The problem for the Eurocrats is that very few people among the public in Europe want a United States of Europe.  What they appear to want is no war, good trade access to nearby countries, and easy inter-country movement for holidays or work.  You can have all of that without being the United States of Europe.  A Dane does not want to be a co-citizen with a Greek, nor the Greek with a Belgian, nor the Belgian with a British person.

    A series of referenda in several European countries have repeatedly shown popular opinion is not behind this “ever-closer union” idea, and Europe has ignored those and required second votes with implicit threats.  That is blackmail.  The EU itself is about as democratic as the Chinese Communist Party.  Who elected that Belgian idiot van Rompuy?  Or his accomplice in illiberalism Barroso?  Who gave them the power to coerce properly elected Governments in Italy and Greece to dissolve themselves to then place technocrats in charge? 

    I am truly astonished that a professional politician like Mary Honeyball would not recognise the way in which the wind is blowing, and then put her name to this article.

    The sooner the EU reverts to being a simple free trade area, the better for everyone.

  • Mr I Grumble

    Hmm, proves that many Labour & other UK MEPs live in a parallel unviverse and are completely devoid of intelligence or common sense. But what do you expect from a Euro-Socialist Fifth Columnists who are prepared to sell the UK down the EU Swanee for their “30 Pieces of EU-rine land Silver” and a a cushy financial billet in Brussels.

  • http://twitter.com/mistyblulabour dave stone

    A very thoughtful piece from Mary.

    I was always surprised that Tony Blair didn’t attempt to make the case for greater EU integration – perhaps he was afraid of losing Murdoch’s support?

    I’d certainly support more integration and moves toward a world government (can environmental challenges be met by any other means?) and this is why it’s important to develop and strengthen international institutions – instead of taking the make-it-up-as-we-go-along approach*.

    But  supra-national entities will need to be opened to democratic processes before this can happen.

    *http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012/06/13/we-shouldnt-stop-at-responsibility-to-protect/#more-13579

    • blingmun

      “A very thoughtful piece from Mary.”

      No, it was ignorant, illogical wishful thinking.

      “But  supra-national entities will need to be opened to democratic processes before this can happen.”

      And for democratic process to work you need a demos. That’s why all supra-national entities end up as enemies of democracy.

  • http://twitter.com/doggywoggydooda doggywoggy

    “Except of course, we are. The recession is deeper here than elsewhere in
    the EU. Britain’s double dip recession matches the economic problems of
    almost any save the most deficient Eurozone country.”

    So imagine how much worse it would be if we were in the Euro and unable to remedy the situation at all with Quantitive Easing?

    The first few tranches of QE pumped 250 BILLION pounds of liquidity into the system, when labour were in power, which prevented that recession, the deepest and longest since the 1930′s, from turning into a full blown depression.

    Since then we have had further inputs of money, which would not have happened had we joined the Euro.

    Perhaps you are right, perhaps we should have joined the Euro, and then we would not only have lost a million private sector jobs (under labour from 2007 – 2009) we would also have lost a lot more public sector jobs during that time too and REALLY seen how incompetent labour were at running the economy.

    Now we are faced with Austerity, which is NOT a choice, but is an inevitable and guaranteed consequence of RUNNING OUT OF MONEY!

    I think we should all rejoice that John Major won us an opt-out of the Euro and we exercised that opt out!

    if John Major had not won that opt-out, then we would have had your wish and we would be in far deeper trouble today!

    • http://twitter.com/chrisjwowen Chris Owen

      “The first few tranches of QE pumped 250 BILLION pounds of liquidity into the system, when labour were in power, which prevented that recession”

      You’re a fool. You don’t end a recession like that. That just delays it and makes it worse next time. 2007 was exactly because of what they did around 2000 to delay the recession then with a property boom. 2012 and beyond is the same again hence where we are now and  you thinking Labour are anything different from these clowns currently in government.

  • chudsmania

     Congrats Mrs Honeyball , you’ve just written your electorial epitaph here . No doubt your rival candidates will have printed off this piece and will distribute it with glee at the next Euro elections  , thus ensuring your electorate will have a new representative who actually has all their marbles .

  • WyeLea

     

    Same old
    scaremongering tactics from EU champs like this lady.  Fortunately the British People have far more
    sense than to believe this nonsense as we will discover at the inevitable referendum
    on EU membership.

  • a. taxpayer

    barking mad

    Ms Honeyball, April 1st is a long way off.

  • george

    idiocy of the scariest type. If she truly thinks joining the euro is a good idea, Mary Honeyball should not be in allowed out in the community without a carer in attendance.

  • Weweqw

    If we were in the Euro we would be facing the same problems as Greece is now; we’re not because we have DEVALUED the pound by 20-30%. I wish MPs would understand BASIC economics!

  • lojolondon

    This is hilarious! Obviously with Mrs HoneyBalls being an MEP, it is vital to her continued career progress that Britain stays in the EU, and it would be nice for her to report to her boss that we are taking the Euro.
    But, knowing what we know, how many people would be clamouring to board the Titanic as she left on her maiden voyage, fearful of being left behind? Because the EU and the Euro is going to sink to the bottom of the ocean, as surely as day follows night.
    Personally I think we have missed our chance to leave the EU, it has cost us hundreds of Billions of Pounds over the last 20 years for no discernable benefit.
    PS. It is very misleading to state Britain has worse unemployment than Germany and Luxemborg, no other EU state has better figures than the UK.

  • http://twitter.com/chrisjwowen Chris Owen

    The reason the UK is doing worse than the other rich nations of europe is precisely because Labour’s claim this was an global event and not UK specific is complete crap.

    London is arguably the financial capital of world depending what measurements are used to compared it with its only possible rival, New York.

    It is indeed a global recession and we know who had a substantial part to play in triggering it.

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