Labour 10 points ahead of the Tories in London – but behind the Tories in three evening polls

26th January, 2015 6:10 pm

Update: Three more polls out this evening – and all three put Labour behind the Tories by one point. It’s the first time Survation has had the Tories ahead in this Parliament, and the first time ComRes has recorded a Tory lead since 2011. YouGov also have a one point lead for the Tories.

SURVATION – CON 31% (+2); LAB 30% (-2); UKIP 23% (+3); LD 7% (-4); SNP 5% (+2); GRE 3% (+1); OTHER 1% (0)

COMRES – CON 31% (+2); Labour 30%(-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 8% (-4); GRE 7% (+2) OTHER 7% (+1)

YOUGOV – CON 34%; LAB 33%; LD 6%; UKIP 15%; GRN 7%

It’s getting tight, but Tory leads are no longer outliers…

YouGov polling for the Evening Standard has found that Labour are well in London – with the support of 42% of people living in the capital.


This is a two point increase since this polling was last done two months ago, leaving the Tories 10 points behind on 32%. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have dropped to fifth place behind Ukip and the Greens:

Labour 42%, Conservatives 32%, Ukip 10%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 7%

The Evening Standard’s analysis of these results suggests this could mean the Tories could lose marginal seats such as Hendon, Enfield North, Brentford and Isleworth and Croydon Central. It could also suggests Labour can win in Lib Dem-held Brent Central (soon to be evacuated by Sarah Teather).

Anthony Wells from YouGov explained to the Standard what this could mean for Labour:

“Labour is set to gain its easier targets across London in May.  However, unlike in 2010, when it did better in the capital than the rest of the country, it shows no signs of out-performing in London.”

In other polling news, the latest from Populus puts Labour one point ahead of the Tories (35 to their 34). While Ashcroft has relatively good news for Labour, putting them level with the Tories after they were one point behind last week. So although the Tories are up two points from last week, Labour are up four. The full results are as follows (and don’t make for pleasant reading for the Lib Dems who, like in the Standard poll, are in fifth place):

Conservative 31(+2), Labour 32(+4), Ukip 15 (NC),Green 11(-2), Lib Dem 6 (-3), 

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  • SilentHunter


    • robertcp

      Yes, Islington is in London.

  • mouthOfTheUmber

    if Labour have a 10 point lead in London, where does it stand in the rest of the country?

    • SilentHunter

      Are you including Scotland in . . . “the rest of the country”?

      • robertcp

        Yes, it is called the United Kingdom.

    • robertcp

      The article said that Labour is not outperforming the rest of the country, so presumably a ten point lead is consistent with a virtual dead heat at the national level.

  • BillFrancisOConnor

    Looks like London is pretty solid.

    • SilentHunter

      By “solid” . . . do you mean “dense”?

  • Sunny Jim

    I’m not overly concerned by these polls.

    The 2015 election will turn out to be a very fortuitous one for us to lose.

    • bikerboy

      Seem to remember the 2010 election was the one to lose as well…

  • paul barker

    Taking the average of tonights 5 polls we have a Tory lead of 0.4%, last month Labour had a lead of 3%.

    • barry

      And at the beginning of 2014 we had a lead of 6 per cent. It’s a clear pattern unfortunately.

      • Olly

        And half way through 2012 labour had a 12 point lead, with some polls suggesting 14 or 15 points…those were the days!

  • Jane Manby

    Don’t you just turn off to the polls and start thinking yadayadayada

  • Gary Hills

    I get board of this constant polling, none of them are greatly accurate. They go up, they go down, but just because one or two say the Tories are suddenly popular again it does not reflect on the street. That’s because polls are not good ways to judge real voting intention.

    You can ask 500 people from the same area to pass a view, you could then ask another 500 in the same areas and the neighbours of the last batch. Both sets of people could say something completely different to the others. It makes nobody right or wrong, it just means its reason why polls are largely unimportant.

    Politics is about perception and how people feel about key issues and not about part allegiance every second of the day. A question in a poll could be worded in such a way that it implies people would not back Labour. Yet ask that same person who they vote for and it could indeed be Labour.

    Now for over two years the average poll lead was 3 to 7%. So nothing has changed in the last few moths to imply the Tories are more liked. But what there is, is a reality that some of the UKIP vote will go back to the Tories on election day. But likewise a 3rd of Green votes will go back to Labour. Plus more people will drift from seeing UKIP as a viable party if they have views on the left. The SNP will not do as well as made out and bit by bit Labour will dent the SNPs ability to make many gains.

    If we get too bogged down in these polls however we lose sight of what Labour needs to do. That is putting its policy out there and it getting heard. That is what we need to do and be more positive about Labour.

    Stop publishing these polls that claim the Tories are ahead. it does moral no good at all and as said most polling is largely bogus.

    • David Pickering

      What is important, is the polling trend. I accept you can’t point to a particular poll, and draw too much from it, but what we have seen consistently since 2012 is Labour’s pool lead being eroded.

      We now enter a general election campaign, with, at best, the parties neck and neck. It’s curtains for Labour.

      • Monkey_Bach

        Trends are important and the Conservative trend in the polls for years has been to remain static on 32%, four points lower than in 2010 when they had their best chance and yet failed to win a majority. The trend as far as the Conservative go is a reduction followed by no significant uptick in support for the duration of their period in government.


  • Olly

    Those high ukip percentages should frighten Labour. No way will that vote hold up in the GE – and most of the flippers will go to the Conservatives. The question is how many ukippers will flip over to the Tories? If Labour falls another two or three points (to add to the 12 to 14 point fall since 2012) and a quarter of ukippers go Tory, Ed’s a dead duck.

  • David Pickering

    At the risk of upsetting my Leftie friends, after 5 years of cuts, and concerted campaigns by the Labour party on austerity, the NHS, and the ‘cost of living crisis’, Labour should have a double digit poll lead at this point. The fact they don’t bodes ill for Mr Ed and his silent colleagues. It seems there is no appetite in the country for a return to socialism.

    Labour are toast. They will lose the election, and Miliband will resign.

    • Monkey_Bach

      I wouldn’t be so hasty.

      The Conservatives are polling about 4% less than in 2010 with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister in the middle of a financial crises that he was often blamed for. (The Conservatives really need to be about 7% ahead of Labour to win a majority and 3% ahead to win the most seats.) What this suggests to me is dwindling support for both of the two main parties and that the result of the election looks set to be decided by the number of UKIP voters which return to their parties of first choice, Tory and Labour, and how many Liberal Democrat defectors to Labour actually go on to vote Labour in 2015. The either/or choice that has dominated British politics since the war is fading.


      • David Pickering

        The Tories have incumbency on their side. They also have the Ed Miliband card to play. It’s clear the country don’t rate Miliband, so the Tories will ram the prospect of Miliband being PM down their throats.

        The Miliband card has also become much more potent given the embarrassment of the energy price freeze, which has now turned to a ball of chalk.

        No doubt, the Tories will point out that Miliband made the poor poorer whilst in government, and now, even in opposition, he continues to harm the poor with his foolish pronouncements.

        No, Miliband is a dead man walking.

        • Monkey_Bach

          If incumbency was the be all and the end all we’d still have a Labour government, besides, as far as I can remember, incumbency is only worth about 1% – 2% in the ballot to MPs who have performed well. On the other hand I believe I’m right in saying that hardly any political party has managed to increase its vote share when submitted for re-election in a subsequent general election: the late Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair failed to manage it, the two most durable thrice-elected Prime Ministers since the second world war. Based on the historic record the Conservatives absolutely should end up with significantly fewer MPs than the 306 they won in 2010 no matter who is leader of the Labour Party.

          No Conservative majority then whatever else happens.

          I definitely wouldn’t write off Miliband yet.


          • David Pickering

            I don’t think incumbency is the be all and end all, because all government’s fall in the end, but that tends to happen after at least two terms in office. However, you have accepted that incumbency gives an advantage of 1% – 2%. The Tories only need a 3% lead to be the largest party. I suspect their lead will be a little larger than that, by polling day, but I don’t think they will get a majority.

            As for the smaller parties, I think their vote will fall away during the campaign, when their current supporters realise the parliamentary consequences of voting Green / UKIP etc. The one exception to that will be the SNP, who I believe are going to muller Labour is Scotland.

            You may be giving Miliband the benefit of the doubt, but for me, he will be on the back benches by the end of May.

          • Monkey_Bach

            Although Labour’s poll lead has steadily diminished over the last year the Conservatives have been static in the polls on about 32% for the longest time; it’s difficult to imagine the Tories suddenly winning back significant support in the next month or two all things being equal. I would agine the two main parties going into the election within a point or two of each other, unless Labour’s contingent of Liberal Democrat defectors return to their party of first choice (polls say no) or substantial numbers of Kippers flip their support from UKIP back to the Conservatives over and above similarly inclined persons deciding at the last moment to return to the Labour fold.

            Whoever ends up in power will almost certainly end up being hamstrung by others and probably become very unpopular very quickly when interest rates begin rising again in the next parliament. Although it will be interesting to finally discover just how real Britain’s economic recovery actually once money becomes more expensive and overextended people end up paying very much more to service their mortgages and loans.

            For Labour’s long-term future it might be better if it lost.


  • jim1999

    Labour’s vote isn’t as efficient as the numbers suggest – I smell an upset in Hampsted and Killburn and the Lib Dems will do better than people think in Brent


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