Update: Three more polls out this evening – and all three put Labour behind the Tories by one point. It’s the first time Survation has had the Tories ahead in this Parliament, and the first time ComRes has recorded a Tory lead since 2011. YouGov also have a one point lead for the Tories.
SURVATION – CON 31% (+2); LAB 30% (-2); UKIP 23% (+3); LD 7% (-4); SNP 5% (+2); GRE 3% (+1); OTHER 1% (0)
COMRES – CON 31% (+2); Labour 30%(-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 8% (-4); GRE 7% (+2) OTHER 7% (+1)
YOUGOV – CON 34%; LAB 33%; LD 6%; UKIP 15%; GRN 7%
It’s getting tight, but Tory leads are no longer outliers…
YouGov polling for the Evening Standard has found that Labour are well in London – with the support of 42% of people living in the capital.
This is a two point increase since this polling was last done two months ago, leaving the Tories 10 points behind on 32%. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have dropped to fifth place behind Ukip and the Greens:
Labour 42%, Conservatives 32%, Ukip 10%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 7%
The Evening Standard’s analysis of these results suggests this could mean the Tories could lose marginal seats such as Hendon, Enfield North, Brentford and Isleworth and Croydon Central. It could also suggests Labour can win in Lib Dem-held Brent Central (soon to be evacuated by Sarah Teather).
Anthony Wells from YouGov explained to the Standard what this could mean for Labour:
“Labour is set to gain its easier targets across London in May. However, unlike in 2010, when it did better in the capital than the rest of the country, it shows no signs of out-performing in London.”
In other polling news, the latest from Populus puts Labour one point ahead of the Tories (35 to their 34). While Ashcroft has relatively good news for Labour, putting them level with the Tories after they were one point behind last week. So although the Tories are up two points from last week, Labour are up four. The full results are as follows (and don’t make for pleasant reading for the Lib Dems who, like in the Standard poll, are in fifth place):
Conservative 31(+2), Labour 32(+4), Ukip 15 (NC),Green 11(-2), Lib Dem 6 (-3),