Labour take 12 point lead in the capital

24th April, 2015 3:30 pm


The latest YouGov survey for the Evening Standard is out and Labour are still ahead of the Tories in London by a significant amount: they’ve got a 12 point lead.

This is down by one point since the YouGov last did this poll in March, however it does look like the party are set to win at least two thirds of their target seats in the capital.

The paper’s constituency analysis shows Labour taking between 8 and 10 of the target seats, six of them currently Tory-held. This includes in Harrow East, where Uma Kumaran is the candidate and they call Bermondsey and Old Southwark, where Lib Dem Simon Hughes has been the MP for 32 years, a “danger zone”.

Meanwhile, two of the smaller parties – UKIP and the Greens – seem to be picking up slightly more support since last month’s survey. The full results read at follows:

Lab 44% (-1) , Con 32% (-2), UKIP 10% (+2), Lib Dem 8% (NC), Greens 5% (+1)

The slight increase in support for UKIP and the Greens comes from the other three parties. YouGov have said that Ukip are picking up 14% of their support from people who voted Tory  in 2010 and 5% comes from people who voted Labour. For the Greens, most of defections come from the Lib Dems.

When broken down in terms of gender, women are far more likely to vote Labour than they are Conservative:

Female Male
Con 28 35
Lab 47 41
Lib Dem 8 8
Ukip 12 8
Green 4 6

Among ABC1s (those on higher incomes) and C2DEs (those on lower incomes) Labour fare well at 45% and 41% respectively, while the Conservatives are on 33% and 30% respectively. That surprisingly high lead for Labour among wealthier voters could lead to some unexpected results on May 7th.

Value our free and unique service?

LabourList has more readers than ever before - but we need your support. Our dedicated coverage of Labour's policies and personalities, internal debates, selections and elections relies on donations from our readers.

If you can support LabourList’s unique and free service then please click here.

To report anything from the comment section, please e-mail [email protected]
  • swatnan

    All the more important to have a strong Mayoral Candidate like Di Abbott in 2016.
    At least we’ll be able to Keep London Labour.

    • g978

      Diane would be poison. We have seen what happened in Tower Hamlets.

  • g978

    So Labour is ahead in one area then! (I jest as they have Wales too). The national polling isn`t looking as bright.

    • Canarydan

      Has the North and the West Midlands ceased to exist?

  • Mike Scanlon

    i don’t feel for one minute that Diane Abbott is the rite candidate for this job to be honest i would rather see a more forceful but even handed candidate


LabourList Daily Email

Everything Labour. Every weekday morning

Share with your friends