ICM, March 28th: Con 39%, Lab 31%, LD 19%

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: A second poll tonight, the YouGov tracker, the Tories at 37%, Labour at 32% and the Lib Dems on 19%

A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World shows the Tory lead up to 8 points. The poll shows the Conservatives up one point in the last seven days to 39%, with Labour down a point to 31% and the Lib Dems unchanged on 19%.

Translated on a uniform swing, the new poll would result in a hung parliament, with the Tories winning 309 seats to Labour’s 265, and the Tories some 17 seats short of a working majority, according to UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

The News of the World says the slight Tory rise is a “baby bounce” – David and Samantha Cameron announced they are expecting a baby this week.

It could also be that the government often experiences slight and temporary dips in polling number immediately after a budget. In this poll, 24% of people said they were less likely to vote Labour as a result of the budget, while 9% said it made them more like to vote Labour.

A YouGov tracking poll is expected later tonight.