Osborne’s curious economic confidence

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

George Osborne is reportedly feeling rather chipper today. He received the ONS growth figures for the first quarter of 2011 earlier – a full 24 hours ahead of the official announcement. I won’t complain about the unfairness of that fact.

I won’t complain that Osborne has a full day and the whole of the treasury machine to spin “independent” forecasts, whilst Ed Balls has just a handful of people working with him and will be expected to provide an instant response.

Apart from the fact that Ed Balls is undoubtedly better with numbers than Osborne, it would be unfair to complain – after all Gordon Brown was more than happy to take advantage of such spinning room.

Besides, the last time growth figures were released we had the amusing spectacle of George Osborne crying “snow” as an excuse. That won’t cut the mustard this time. Besides, Andrew Lansley has stolen that line from Osborne and started to use it on NHS waiting lists instead…

So Osborne is feeling chipper. Whilst it’s difficult for any Labour supporter to be pleased at the sight of the chancellor’s rictus grin, we should of course we pleased if the economy is really in recovery.

That’s far from certain though.

The FT has taken a thorough look at what should be considered weak, average and strong growth. They’re saying that in light of last quarter’s stagnation, growth of 1.7% is needed. That would be a remarkable turnaround (especially in light of the VAT rise) but that should be our benchmark for Osborne tomorrow. And remember, April is the most at which most of the cuts hit.

In addition though, Ed Balls and the shadow treasury team should be armed with one crucial phrase tomorrow – “at what cost?”. If the economy has grown, at what cost? How many jobs have been lost? How many police officers and teaching assistants have lost their jobs? How much untold future damage has Osborne done to the economy to get it growing again?

Labour had the economy growing again in 2010. By the end of the year the Tories had squandered that growth. You may have the economy growing George – us mere mortals will find that out tomorrow. But it took you long enough, didn’t it…?