Slasher vs Slugger – the fight for the economy

Strategy with Sue Marsh

“Laydeeeeeez and Gentlemen. Take your seats for the Heavyweight Championship of the Woooooorrld.

Iiiiiiiin Blue. Osborne The Slasher. He’s sneaky, he ducks, he dives but his punches hurt! Weighing in at just over 12 months, what he lacks in stature he makes up for in low-blows. (Round of pantomime boos and rapturous applause.)

Iiiiiiiin Red. Balls The Slugger. Tipping the scales on experience, he’s slower and some say his strategy for tonight is all wrong, but can he land that knockout punch? (Round of pantomime boos and rapturous applause.)”

This last week or two have been fascinating. The Osborne and Balls show has been moving on nicely, backed up with some cracking speeches from Balls full of passion and sparks and some unemployment figures that seemed to give Osborne something to hang on to.

I often complain that politicians have forgotten how to stand by their principles. That they are terrified of backing anything with even a whiff of unpopularity for fear of their careers. Well, Slugger Balls certainly can’t be accused of that. In interview after interview this week he was told that economically, he’s out on a limb. The IMF, OECD, OBR and any other group of letters you care to throw together “back” Osborne’s plans, we are told. The public want to see these cuts, we are told. There is no alternative. The interviewers are clear.

Nonetheless, Slugger doesn’t change his game-plan. He’s making the same arguments today he made a year ago. He says it’s too quick. He says there’s no growth. He says it won’t work. He says we need to stimulate the economy.

And slowly, over the last few weeks, he’s starting to land those blows.

The IMF did back Slasher’s plan, however, they also warned:

They now see growth of 1.5% this year, down from 1.7% only two months ago, and 2% last autumn. And that, in the IMF’s view, is not without consequences…. The IMF says that in the face of a prolonged weakening in the economy, the government should not only allow the fiscal stabilisers to “operate freely”, but also consider a combination of “(i) expanded asset purchases by the Bank of England and (ii) temporary tax cuts”.

And what of the public? Well their confidence in the coalition’s handling of the economy has been ebbing away for months. It now stands at just 37% who think they are handling the economy well, with 57% who think they are handling it badly. Nonetheless, they still prefer Slasher and believe that Labour spent money “unwisely”.

Slugger has to keep pounding away with the body blows. He has to keep explaining over and over why spending money led to strong growth under Darling and Brown and why austerity won’t reduce the deficit. Osborne jabs and he dances, but he’s got to start landing some growth blows or he won’t make it to the 12th round.

Let’s call this round 5. After a lumbering start, I score this one for Slugger. Taking the IMF’s advice, he called for a reversal of the VAT rise. The public liked it and he backed Slasher into his own corner. It led to the bizarre spectacle of Tories opposing a tax cut. Their arguments that we can’t afford it go against Tory beliefs built over centuries.

Another, more unusual move saw Slasher announce the sell off of Northern Rock. Why now? Why sell it when the market is poor and profit will almost certainly be minimal? Why does Slasher need a swift billion and what does he plan to do with it? I’m sure that Slugger will need his wits about him in the 6th or 7th if he’s not to be taken off guard.

The public are fickle. They support austerity – for now – but both heavyweights know that a week is a long time in politics. Without decent growth figures and significant reductions in the deficit, Slasher will find it increasingly hard to break out of his own corner. If he gets them, Slugger will surely tire – maybe even be forced to throw in the towel?

There was a sense from Mr Balls this week that they will fight to the end. There will be no one knockout punch but over all 12 rounds the winner will be clear. “We’ll see who is right in the end” claims Slugger. Both men can only hope it is them.