Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right

The right of his party has been trying to flex it’s muscles for some time. Seeking more influence. And perhaps more than they really deserve given, as people keep pointing out, the Conservatives didn’t actually win the election. But this is now a major headache for Cameron. But mollifying his right flank is actually the least of his troubles following last night’s vote.Through the first year or more of the Coalition it seemed that Nick Clegg was willing to be a political piñata. Fronting up, without restraint, every unpopular Coalition policy. So keen was he to be seen to be leading that you couldn’t turn on the telly without seeing Nick defending the indefensible. Forests. I’ll do it. Tuition fees. Me me me. Billions wasted on NHS organisation. I’m there.

But a marked change in tactic started before the summer recess and was front and centre of this year’s Lib Dem conference. Nick Clegg has started flexing his Liberal Muscle. There always had to be some stage managed anti-Tory rhetoric at Lib Dem conference, but the level and seniority of those taking part was marked and deliberate. This tactic tries to carve out independence within the Coalition so the Lib Dems still have a distinctive brand at elections while propping up a Tory Government. And this after Cameron spent months sharing the love with Nick, sometimes seemingly at the expense of his own members.

It may be that the Tory right who rebelled last night felt that Cameron had spent so much of the last eighteen months comforting and cajoling Liberal Democrats that they deserved a little bit of the love. (I speculate because I don’t for one second pretend to know the inner workings of the minds of the Tory right.)

But what this means in practice is that Cameron now has a right flank in his own party willing to flex muscle. Sage politicos always tell us that rebellions are habit forming. But surely he, and Nick Clegg, now also have some Liberal Democrat backbenchers – many of whom have sat on their hands while voting for policies they must find abhorrent – wondering why on earth the first newsworthy rebellion of this Coalition Government came from the Tory right not them.We have no blue print for this. But what if, in Coalition Government, rebellions aren’t only habit forming, but contagious?

There are 79 Tory backbenchers now openly willing to defy the Tory whip, and the 40 odd backbench Lib Dems, twitchy about policy, watching council seats fall in key seats, and looking at boundary commission projections that see many of them annihilated.

The government has a working majority of 83. Only just over a third of this pool of actual or potential malcontents are required to defeat the Government. Put like that it’s not that much.

This presents both an opportunity and a risk for Labour. This Government is pursuing a ruthless right wing agenda and using an economic situation – now very much of it’s own making – as cover for doing it. It could be tempting, and much fun, to laugh  at any situation where the government finds itself buffeted from left to right, trying to please everyone to win votes. And it could be tempting to stoke it up.

But, the economic situation is now so perilous, that there could be one thing worse than a well run ruthless right wing government – a badly run one. The impact that the international markets and credit rating agencies have must be taken in to account. And one of the reasons why they view Greece and Italian debt so poorly is the length of time it has taken the EU to act.

As this Coalition Government’s policy adds to our deficit, it seems not to matter so long as the credit rating agencies view the Government as stable. Much as I loathe this government, the last thing ordinary people need is a downgrading of our increasing debt because the government is unable to act. This will only lead to further cuts as we have to pay a higher interest bill.Labour probably needs to sit on its hands for now. Let the infighting unfurl without any prodding from us. If Labour is seen as trying to stoke up this division, seizing on petty party machinations, rather than focusing on the big picture and being an effective opposition, charting an alternative credible course, we will probably be blamed by the electorate for the chaos it will create.

No, lets just sit back and watch what happens.