Why spending a day with the Tories was a cheerful experience

On Saturday I went to the Conservative Home ‘Victory 2015’ Conference. It actually proved quite a tonic for a Labour supporter and I was tempted to invite John O’Farrell to cheer him up. The pleasing note came from the polling provided by Lord Ashcroft, former Tory Donor now semi-detached, which indicated happy days for Labour.

In the critical 109 Con-Lab marginals there has been an 8% swing to Labour. For those who want all their Christmas wishes to come true there has been a even bigger swing in Lib Dem – Labour marginals of over 17%. In those seats Labour would win every single one with the exception of Charlie Kennedy’s seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber (which some would regard as a Labour hold). Interestingly in Lib-Dem-Con marginals the same poll shows both parties at neck and neck which is good news for Vince Cable. Over a third of those who voted Conservative in 2010 would no longer vote for them – with half not voting at all, 20% going to Labour and a whopping 40% going over to UKIP). As for the North of England its almost looking like a lost cause for the Tories and certainly in the North East which is going the way of Scotland. As one forlorn Scottish Tory said ‘voting Tory is the equivalent of playing cricket – something they do in England.’

So we would be looking at a Labour Majority of over 80 which puts the increasing ridiculous Tory Chairman Grant Shapps strategy of 40 gains from Labour and Lib Democrats into perspective. As Ashcroft commented the present Tory election strategy was like planning the final assault on Berlin whilst at the same time  evacuating the beaches at Dunkirk. One of the most interesting debates was the recognition that the Tories has lost the battle of language with Labour. It isn’t just the criticism of a ‘bedroom tax’ (one Tory activist reported the terror of voters thinking they would actually receive a tax demand for their spare rooms) it was that as a party they are associated with cutting, ending, limiting, and privatising.

Running throughout the Conference like a vein in Blackpool rock was UKIP. The Tories are terrified at the prospect of a split in  the right wing vote and constantly refer to the SDP/Labour split of the 1980s as a portent of what could happen in 2015. It lead to a very public spat between Dan Hannan MEP, a strong advocate of an electoral pact with UKIP, and Robert Halfon MP for Harlow who wants to fight them all the way. Expect a lot more of this in the run up and immediate aftermath of the Euro Elections next June when UKIP are widely expected to top the poll.

Was there any reason to be a cheerful Tory at the end of the Conference? Well as the pollsters commented most opposition parties at an equivalent point in the electoral cycle – including Michael Foot’s Labour Party in 1982 – were recording higher levels of support. There are also some regional variations in the polling, perhaps most significantly in Yorkshire where the swing to Labour is less than half the rest of the North. Moreover ‘Team Cameron’ scores consistently higher than ‘Team Miliband’ (although as Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson pointed out it is foolish to build an entire electoral strategy on attacking Miliband – for the electorate Ed is a hard man to hate). Plus there are some clever Tories out there. In particular there was an interesting contribution from Jessie Norman MP on a Tory manifesto for 2015 based on economic and social reassurance as well as understanding the need for a change in Tory values to reflect a changing country. Thoughtful stuff so good news that the Tory High command have decided to go with the ‘attack dog’ politics of Lynton Crosby instead.

Perhaps the overwhelming impression is that most of those present have already given up on winning in 2015 (and by extension on Cameron). The most explicit recognition of this was the rapturous reception given to the key note speech by Home Secretary Teresa May, described warmly as Britain’s Angela Merkel. Always good to see a leadership bid from its beginning.

Paul Wheeler is founder of Political Skills. He writes on local politics.