Two-fifths of Labour members consider Greens biggest threat to Labour, poll reveals

Two-fifths of Labour members consider the Green Party Labour’s biggest electoral threat, with the numbers of those concerned at the challenge they pose almost doubling in two months.

Exclusive polling for LabourList, conducted by Survation, found that 40 percent of members see Zack Polanski’s party as the biggest electoral threat to Labour, up from 22 percent in February and from three percent a year ago.

However, a plurality of Labour members still see Nigel Farage and Reform UK as the biggest threat at 47 percent, down from 65 percent in February.

It comes as the Green Party seeks to build on strong opinion polls and a by-election victory in Gorton and Denton at the English local elections in around a fortnight’s time, with the party expected to make significant gains in London, Birmingham and other Labour heartlands.

Polanski has said that he wants to “replace” the Labour Party as Britain’s predominant left-wing party, with current polling putting the Greens either slightly ahead or just behind Labour.

Labour members in South East England, where the Greens have an MP and minority control of several councils, were the most likely to see the Greens as the biggest electoral threat at 52 percent. However, members in the North East, where Reform hold dozens of council seats and control of County Durham council, were the most likely to see Farage’s party as the biggest challenge to Labour at the ballot box at 65 percent.

Although a majority of members who backed Bridget Phillipson for deputy leader consider Reform Labour’s biggest electoral challenge (at 52 percent to the Greens on 33 percent), those who backed Lucy Powell are more split, with 46 percent considering the Greens the biggest threat, compared to 42 percent for Reform.

‘Without a positive message about why people should vote Labour, we cannot assume they will’

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “Labour are traditionally used to fighting one party at a time. When the Tories went down, we went up and vice versa. That simply isn’t true anymore. Across the UK we face electoral threats on a number of different flanks.

“This makes it more important than ever not to simply push a message against our opponents. This only worked when such votes “counted double” (i.e a minus in their column and a plus in our).

“In a multi-party world, even were we to successfully dissuade voters from going to either the Greens or Reform, without a positive message about why people should vote Labour, we cannot assume with any confidence they will.”

‘Labour members increasingly see electoral pressure coming from both their right and their left’

Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, said: “The topline figures show Reform UK remains the party most commonly seen by Labour members as Labour’s biggest electoral threat, but the gap has narrowed considerably since February.

“The most striking movement is the rise in concern about the Greens. A party that only a small minority of members saw as Labour’s main threat a year ago is now close behind Reform, suggesting Labour members increasingly see electoral pressure coming from both their right and their left.”

The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,190 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between April 17 and 22.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region, 2020 leadership vote and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy elections.

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