Yesterday the latest Ipsos Mori poll was covered by the Evening Standard. To read the report you’d think that the results were abnormally bad for Ed Miliband (
as it happens, Cameron was far further behind Brown at this stage than Miliband is behind Cameron).
Furthermore, in the last month Ed Miliband has improved his leadership ratings with Ipsos-Mori from -20 to -16, whilst Cameron’s was up slightly less from -30 to -28.
Yet the write up in the Standard was all about how bad these results are for Miliband – not how Miliband had extended his lead over Cameron.
As a result, tempers are fraying at Labour HQ with the pollster (who, rather than the Evening Standard, are getting the blame from the folks at Brewers Green). A Labour source told me last night:
“Mori consistently brief highly-selective data to create misleading impressions. They do themselves damage and political debate a disservice.”
Considering the party rarely comment on polls, this is an incredibly strongly worded attack on a major pollster…
Update: Ipsos Mori have responded to this post in a statement on their website. I’m happy to concede their point about Brown/Cameron vs Cameron/Miliband polling. Sometimes you have to hold up your hands up – I got my figures wrong, and I apologise to LabourList readers for that.
However, I stand by the rest of my post.
Ipsos Mori have stated that Ed Miliband improving his leadership ratings by 4 points in a month (and increasing his lead over Cameron in terms of satisfaction / dissatisfaction) isn’t statistically significant.
Yet despite that I think that there’s a case for arguing that Miliband increasing his polling lead over David Cameron after a tough month – albeit by a small amount – was still worth noting.
And of course the most newsworthy part of the piece – that a senior Labour source feels that Ipsos Mori are selective in their briefings – is something that I stand by, and which that senior Labour figure still feels, despite Ipsos Mori’s response.