We can’t wait for the Tories to lose the election

The Tories are having a good week. Well not really, but they are having a better week than they’ve had for a long time, and the one thing they are absolutely excelling at in Government is expectation management. So yes, the Tories – under those terms – are having a good week.

This is at least in part because Labour are having a bad few weeks. Sadly, we were never going to come through Thatcher’s death wholly unscathed (though in my opinion the Party as a whole handled it pretty well), and the Tories were therefore gifted a moment of national unity weeks before the local elections. They were also gifted a national diversion as it was announced that unemployment figures were creeping upwards towards the 3 million mark (it’s what she would have wanted).

The Thatcher love-in was barely over before a highly unfortunate Blairite pile-attacking of Ed Miliband’s leadership. Which was itself yesterday followed by the inevitable but equally unfortunate McCluskey outburst. Just as Cameron is making some moves to strengthen Tory unity, Labour’s much vaunted unity has started to look decidedly shaky. Just as the Tories realise there’s an election next week, so some senior figures on all sides seems to have forgotten what is owed to Labour voters and members.

My God we suck at this.

And that’s what the Tories are banking on. Expectations of their performance are so low, that a 0.3% growth figure is heralded as a great leap forward. Unemployment isn’t at 3 million – celebrate good times! Borrowing isn’t quite as dreadful as we thought it might be – the sunny uplands are in view! We’re only 7 points behind in the polls – victory is assured! The Tories have managed to set their bar so low (and frequently fail to reach even that) that when they do they are heralded in triumph.

Their mini-shuffle today has brought a couple of very interesting new faces. Jo Johnson for the politics, obviously, promoting Boris’ brother to be Dave’s cheerleader-in-chief is a very interesting move. But for my money the more interesting pick is the promotion of the extremely thoughtful and energetic Margot James – who is the kind of Tory you can like and can work with – in many ways then, the most dangerous kind.

Thanks to the coverage of their complete failure to achieve anything like the representation of women at cabinet level Cameron declared to be their aim, the promotion of James and Jane Ellison to the policy board looks good (it’s not anything like enough, but then when was Cameron ever about anything other than slick appearances). Equally the bringing on of Jesse Norman – the lead Lords reform rebel – looks like a move cleverly calculated to bring the Party back together. This is a pretty right-wing group and one designed to calm backbench nerves. However the promotion of a rebel so soon might not exactly discourage future rebellions.

Steve Hilton is back and Lynton Crosby’s fingerprints were all over the attack on Labour’s record on the NHS at PMQs this week. Former Tory rivals are coming together in the latter half of this government. If their unity can hold (and for me, that is a very big if) then the next election could be in their grasp. Especially if we spend 2013 gifting them wins as they spent 2012 gifting them to us.

This is a dangerous time for the Tories to get their act together. We need to be ready to beat their best game not rely on them producing their worst effort. This means keeping our own debate civil and internal. It will rely on compromise and realising that the we have more in common than we do in enmity. Just once, it would be nice to see Tony Blair recognise that the most left-wing Labour government elected was still better for the lives of ordinary people than the Tories.

The Tories may be getting their act together – or they may just be reuniting the old Bullingdon band to play a few of the old favourites. But unless Labour can unite under our One Nation One Banner principles, we will fail Unite members, Progress members and most importantly, we will fail Britain.