Taking on the emerging UKIP/Tory coalition

It is difficult to remember a time when the British broadcast and print media have collectively been so far to the Right. In part there is a Right wing Conservative led Coalition under guerrilla attack from UKIP forces even further to the Right. In part it is because of the rise of the hyper ventilating Right wing blogs and the mindless twitter-sphere. Partly too, it is down to the continuing failure of the Left to articulate an alternative, and at a time that couldn’t be more propitious for it.

Last week, local elections took place in County Councils across England. They did not take place in Scotland, Wales or the Metropolitan areas. At least a quarter of the small percentage of people who did vote opted for UKIP. The Tories did badly, Labour did moderately well and the Liberal Democrats survived because of UKIP. UKIP did very well.

While it would be both premature and extremely foolish to dismiss the UKIP challenge or pretend that this British version of the Tea party is a flash in the pan, the idea promulgated by much of the Westminster commentariat and twitter-sphere that British politics has irrevocably shifted to the Right is nonsense. The real threat to Labour does not come from a General Election campaign that pits UKIP against the Tories, for Labour will benefit. Which is why the most likely scenario is a Tory-UKIP pre General Election deal; one that would secure an ‘In-Out’ EU referendum manifesto commitment, Michael Gove as a pre-election replacement for David Cameron, with Nigel Farage given a safe parliamentary seat – and a senior role in a new Coalition Cabinet. This is the scenario Labour should fear and be prepared for.

In the absence of a Labour candidate in Speaker John Bercow’s Buckingham constituency at the last election, I helped run the media campaign for an Independent candidate, John Stevens – who beat Nigel Farage and UKIP into third place in a constituency that UKIP had thrown everything at. I have watched Nigel Farage and UKIP at close hand, observed how they campaign and understand their appeal to a section of the electorate that feels not only feels threatened, but still, unlike many of our shattered working class communities, feels it a voice that will be listened to.

UKIP voters in England comprise the largely socially conservative working class, particularly in eastern England where the influx of eastern European cheap migrant labour has had a big impact, the South East and South West. I would bet that many UKIP voters are blue collar, older and owners of small businesses – the classic components of populist Poujadist parties. When Nigel Farage compares his party to the old SDP, he actually underestimates the forces he has helped unleash and find a voice. The SDP was a top down break-away group of pro European Right Wing Labour figures. UKIP on the other hand has its origins in the Referendum Party. It is largely bottom up, but without the organisation prowess of the Liberal Democrats in their prime and marshalled around a set of deeply felt grievances.

Unless Labour really begins to address the real reasons behind the growth and influence of UKIP, those angry older socially conservative voters could yet be joined by some of the millions that abandoned Labour at the last election and who, after years of declining wages, job opportunities and much else, could be attracted to the sort of political force that often follow Poujadist insurgencies; brown shirted fascism.

It is vital that this is nipped in the bud. As a start, all Liberal Democrat MPs who currently have Labour candidates in second place, need to be invited to join Labour, or face annihilation at the next General Election.

In recent weeks, Ed Miliband and Labour have begun to flesh out some of the policies that the party will take into the next election. Most are common-sense, but yet lack the ‘wow’ factor. So if UKIP and the resurgent Right are to be defeated, Labour needs to start making the argument for abandoning austerity, and investing massively in real jobs creation. We need a comprehensive industrial and manufacturing policy, geared at shifting the balance away from the failed finance sector to productive, well remunerated jobs that in turn inject demand into the economy. Labour needs to be clear that it will re-distribute wealth and that it will go after the corrupt bankers that have brought the economy to its knees. The state owned Royal Bank of Scotland should not be sold off, it should become the National State Investment Bank, and Labour will need to reverse hugely unpopular follies such as the selling off of the Royal Mail or the national joke which are the privately run railways.

But the party also needs to face up to the fact that the key drivers of economic change these past thirty years, namely the complete free movement of capital and labour has ended in a race to the bottom so keenly felt by the growing number of people now at rock bottom in Britain. This is an argument that has also been rehearsed here by the Labour MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann, and based upon some solid research he has conducted locally in recent times.

Increasingly these rules have come to govern the European Union, which is why the institution is so unpopular with many natural Labour supporters. The institution has moved beyond a Common or Single Market, to one of Monetary, and therefore political union.

If between them, there is a realistic chance of Ed Miliband and the other European leaders re-fashioning the EU in order to democratise it and regulate the movement of labour as well as the financial markets, this is the argument that should be presented to votes in an EU referendum. There will be some of us who do not believe that may be possible, but the real trump card Ed Miliband and Labour can plan is a commitment to a pre-election EU referendum. Not only could this unpick any Tory UKIP election deal – both of those parties don’t want an early EU referendum for obvious and distinct reasons – but it would give Labour ownership of the issue. In the meantime, the scandal of gang master controlled cheap labour, the companies that do not pay the minimum wage and the race to the bottom encouraged by the super markets and cheap chain stores, has to be brought properly to the public’s attention and Labour needs to promise to act on it.

Over the coming months Labour needs to take UKIP head on. For this the party needs the help of the unions and all those who believe in tolerance and democracy. Failure to do so and a failure to win the arguments would be an utter disaster.