The street battles that will win or lose the next election

It is the textbook political model. Term one establish your credibility. Term two build your organisation. However if you are in a highly marginal area, you must do it in reverse order. It is a message that a majority of  new Tory MPs have failed to grasp.

There are exceptions, who have worked their patch and not been distracted by the trappings of illusionary power. But they are a minority. This career obsession is the Tory election Achilles heel. However as we move towards the real pre-election period, we need to ensure that the disease of stargazing does not  spread  beyond Tory MPs and become the biggest obstacle to Labour winning. The danger in 2014 is that aspirant MPs become desperately keen to be seen around London, attending the right events, having photos taken with the right people, but less keen to get their hands dirty and instead are relying on a group of young organisers fighting their first election.

Their guru is Arnie Graf, an American ‘community organiser’ whose wisdom has been interpreted by some as being a  need for long discussions with voters. So street stalls are back in, glossy propaganda in vogue, but door knocking seen as old hat. As one aspirant  ‘future leader’ regaled me: ‘we don’t do canvassing these days’.

Well I have some news for them: the facts still prove, quite conclusively that the key to winning elections at the local level is knocking on doors. It may not be enough, as in 1992, and it may be superfluous as in 1997, but in most elections it is decisive. Nothing indicates that 2015 will be any different.

Firstly you identify your loyal voters. The key is to get them to vote. In my area, 2,000 people go on holiday each May. Without a postal vote a majority of these are unlikely to vote. But do you know which ones are your loyal voters and can you speak to them, personally or electronically to ensure they can vote?  Secondly you ignore the loyal opposition voters and determined non voters. If someone is a lifelong Tory now, then they will remain so in 2015. Similarly, if someone is adamant they never vote today, they will not have changed their mind in 2015. Thirdly, you identify the floating voters, occasional voters and doubtful voters. If accurately found then they require additional effort. These are the people that your candidate concentrates on personally, especially those who always vote.

It sounds simple. It is, but it requires hard work – continuous hard work. You see it is easier stood, huddled together, behind a street stall waiting for the mad and the bad to approach you – and that is just your own party members. Anyone can stick another leaflet through a letter box. It takes confidence and a little courage at times to relentlessly knock on peoples doors.

The Labour Party is kidding itself if it thinks that this effort is happening in nearly sufficient numbers across the country. Has our National Executive been through the contact rates of each constituency? The Parliamentary Labour Party is certainly ignorant about which of its leading lights works their patch and which do not.

The Tories already know our systems. Lynton Crosby – who is a pale shadow of Lord Ashcroft in his election nous – has a huge undercover operation data-mining key marginal seats. Every bit of data purchasable and databasable is on their system. They can profile each and every voter. But they have two immoveable disadvantages.

The Tories are in power and will not campaign against their own government cuts. Every hospital closure threat, every lost police officer hurts them. This is where Arnie Graf is right. Community campaigning is about leading on these big issues – not by commentary in leaflets, but by community action to defend public services. As another American Democrat Tip O’Neill famously said ‘all politics is local’. My own public meetings get hundreds attending, and all are on local issues.

The second is equally biting. The Tories have no foot-soldiers, with a vanishing party and no cavalry in reserve. Their election will be high spend on remote phone calls and direct mail. This is what they tried in Bassetlaw in 2010, spending £250,000 on direct communications. We countered with boots on the street. This election will be won by the party who knocks the most doors, and we have a huge advantage, as long as we have the courage.

John Mann is the Labour MP for Bassetlaw