The Tories’ miserable little offer for Britain – and why it’s not working for them

Shock and dismay were the order of the day on Sunday at Tory conference, as Lord Ashcroft revealed his latest “mega-poll”. His conclusion was that Labour would win a “comfortable majority”. Cue despair and incredulity from Tories, and delight and incredulity from Labour supporters. After last week’s Labour conference (certainly the flattest in recent years, at least until the final day) Labour members and activists were feeling understandably downbeat – especially following the Ed Balls hammerblow last Monday. But the Ashcroft poll reminds us of something that the Tories themselves have sought to drive home this week – the Tories aren’t gaining voters, they’re losing them.

Only 63% of 2010 Tory voters say they would vote for the Tories in 2015. Only 2% of voters who didn’t vote Tory at the last election would consider doing so this time. And lets remember, the Tories didn’t even win the election last time.

So why are the Tories haemorrhaging votes and failing to replace them with new voters?

The Cameron project was meant to be about detoxifying and modernising the Tory Party, but in reality once the husky hugging was out of the way, the change was barely skin deep. Protecting the NHS in opposition became an expensive reorganisation in government. Social justice in opposition became the cut and slash of the axeman once the keys to Downing Street were safely in hand. And without a majority in the Commons, forces were unleashed within the Conservative Party that Cameron couldn’t control.

With the Lib Dems acting as a convenient scapegoat for any decision the right of the Tory Party didn’t like, their anger and discontent was unleashed. Cameron’s attempts to appease them with (amongst other things) an EU referendum has manifestly failed. Now Cameron must lurch to the right to stop further defects to UKIP (the latest of which emerged this morning) and a fracturing of the right. Yet at the same time, if he really wants to win the next election, it’s younger voters, poorer voters and more socially liberal voters that Cameron needs to attract to his party if he’s going to win the seats and votes he needs.

And then we arrive this week in Birmingham. What do the Tories have to offer the British people?

• Cuts to benefits and support for young people
• A real-terms working benefit cut for ten million British people
• Greater stigma for benefit recipients with the spiteful “benefits card”

This is a miserable little offer for Britain, one that promises to entrench advantage in society whilst offering little hopeful for the millions left behind. But tactically it’s nonsensical for the Tories, because it harms them amongst the young and the working poor. Sure, they’ve leaned into their advantage with older voters via a pensions tax giveaway. But that’s unlikely to be enough.

It’s often said that Labour has a “core-vote” strategy. I’m not convinced that’s the case, because I think Labour’s core-vote want far more than the party’s relatively small current offer. But if Labour are running such a strategy, then the Tories are doubling-down on the same strategy. Just with a smaller core vote.

And as a Labour supporter who is very nervous about my party’s prospects at the next election, I’m heartened by the fact that the Tories seem determined to ignore the voters they need to win, preferring to focus on the small-minded politics of division, distraction and destruction instead.