New polling shows size of problem for Scottish Labour

Labour’s difficulties in Scotland show no signs of easing, with another poll showing that we could lose as many as 36 Scottish MPs in May.

The new Survation poll, carried out for the Daily Record, shows Labour attracting just 24% of Scottish voters for the Westminster election – down from 42% in 2010, when Labour were by far the most popular party in Scotland. The SNP are the main beneficiaries, with the nationalists improving from 20% at the last election to 46% now. The main figures are:

SNP 45.8%, Labour 23.9%, Tories 16.7%, Lib Dem 6.1%, Others 7.5%

On a uniform swing, if these results were replicated at the polls in May next year, Labour would be left with only 5 MPs north of the border. The SNP, meanwhile, would see their lot improved from 6 MPs to 52. This follows two similarly bad polls for Scottish Labour in the immediate aftermath of Johann Lamont’s resignation last month, which showed the Party on 23% and 27%. The new leader will be announced on the 13th December.

These new findings do not just show the level of the task for the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party – Ed Miliband also has a difficult job. His personal polling in Scotland shows that less than 2% “completely trust” the UK Labour leader. Cumulatively, only 29% of voters have any trust in Miliband at all, while 59% say they mostly or completely distrust him. Slightly more people, 31%, say they trusted David Cameron.

UKIP’s popularity in England does not seem to be mirrored in Scotland, with the poll finding just 4.8% of people preparing to vote for them, while the Green’s recent boost is similarly muted, as the Scottish Greens reach only 2.8%

The poll does seem to bear out the worst fears of Liberal Democrats though; one of their top strategists has apparently warned that Cabinet minister Danny Alexander is unlikely to retain his seat. Alexander’s role as Chief Secretary to the Treasury has made him one of the Lib Dems most closely associated with the Government’s economic agenda, and it is this profile that the party worries could see him lose his seat.

You can see the full tables of the poll here.