Proof (if any were needed) that UKIP could cost Labour seats that we need to win

Stockton South is No.7 on Labour’s target seat list. It was won in 2010 by only 332 votes, by the youngest Tory in Parliament (James Wharton). And it’s one of only two Tory seats in the North-East, a Labour stronghold.

And yet a poll from Survation (commissioned by Unite) suggests that the Tories may hold onto the seat, and that Labour’s vote may actually have gone down since 2010. Clearly failing to win such a seat – a top 10 target seat, with a small minority, in the North East – would be something of a disaster. So what’s causing this?

Well unsurprisingly, the 2010 Lib Dem vote has almost entirely collapsed. They’ve fallen from 15% of the vote to just 3% of the vote. Yet Labour haven’t been the recipients of this decline – UKIP have, rising 15 points to take 18% of the vote. Now it’s unlikely to be as simple as a straight Lib Dem to UKIP switch across the board. Some of that UKIP vote will be from Labour and the Tories, and there will be a general churn of votes between the parties.

But what’s clear is that in a key marginal seat, where the Labour Party should be chalking this up as a comfortable win, the result is far from clear cut. That’s incredibly troubling less than six months from election day, when resources should be focussed on the harder to reach target seats, rather than those which should be relative walkovers.

It’s clear that in 2015, uniform national swing isn’t going to provide a clear picture of the election result, because there is minimal swing from the Tories to Labour. The swing that exists is from Lib Dem to Labour (although perhaps not in Stockton South), and from all mainstream parties to UKIP. That means we may well win seats at the outer limits of Labour’s key seat list, but some of those which appeared eminently winnable (Thurrock, No.2 on the target seat list, but which is now a Labour/Tory/UKIP fight is the best example) won’t be that simple at all.

It’s important to note that Ashcroft’s marginal poll had a small Labour lead in Stockton when he polled the seat, so it’s still eminently winnable for Labour. But it shouldn’t really be in doubt. Evidently people in Stockton South (and elsewhere) are unhappy with the status quo from the government – Wharton’s vote hasn’t increased and the Lib Dem vote has collapsed – but neither are they satisfied with what Labour is offering as an alternative, with many preferring to plump for the backwards anti-politics of UKIP.

If anyone believes that UKIP aren’t going to cost Labour seats that we need to win, this poll should be a sobering reality check…