Labour faces an existential struggle in Scotland (but this isn’t a new story)

There’s a new Scottish poll in today’s Guardian that further reinforces the scale of Labour’s challenge in May, with the paper suggesting that Labour faces a “bloodbath” in May. The poll, conducted by ICM, is certainly serious, showing the SNP on course to win 45 out of 59 seats in Scotland, with Labour collapsing to just 26% of the vote in Scotland (compared to 43% for the SNP).

Yet despite the Guardian’s evocative headline (and they’re clearly very keen to focus on the poll after a quiet Christmas period, they’ve written 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 pieces on it) it’s hard to see how Labour’s existential crisis in Scotland is still worthy of front page splashes. The SNP moved ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intention just days after the Scottish referendum. By the end of October, the SNP had a 29 point poll lead. And a few days later in a poll for the Holyrood election in 2016, the gap was 34 points. Survation had the SNP 23 points ahead in November and 24 points ahead in December. Meanwhile YouGov gave the SNP a 20 point lead in their last Scotland poll. The poll in the Guardian shows an SNP lead of 17 points. Whilst that’d still be a diabolical result for the party, it’s actually a less disastrous poll than all of the others recently.

So whilst the Guardian is right to warn of a catastrophic result on the horizon for Labour in Scotland, that’s been the case for months now. That was the background when Johann Lamont resigned, and it was the undertone of the whole Scottish leadership election. It is now the size of the task that Jim Murphy faces as Scottish Labour leader.

What is unique in the Guardian’s reporting is that they have analysis from polling guru Professor John Curtice, who told them the SNP are “on the march in heartland Labour seats, and – if anything – to a greater extent than elsewhere”. This is the challenge that Labour faces – the SNP could take “safe” Labour seats on an outsized swing, and it is these areas where less work and resource has been directed in recent years. Scottish Labour needs to remember that there are no “safe” seats in Scotland for the party anymore, and campaign accordingly…