Scottish Labour faces huge challenge as 52% of Scots say they’ll vote SNP

21st January, 2015 2:57 pm

The latest poll on Scottish voting intentions is depressing reading for Scottish Labour – and with the general election only 16 weeks away, depressing news for the Labour Party as a whole

Ipsos Mori, in a poll for STV, asked 1001 people how they intended to vote in the General Election. However, the following results exclude those who said they didn’t know how they’d vote, reducing the sample size to 650. It’s worth then bearing in mind that this means the margin of error is about 4%. But that does little to the size of the SNP’s lead.

Of those who are sure about who they’re going to vote for, only 24% opted for Labour, while SNP support is more than double this at 52%

If translated directly and universally into the number of seats each party would have in Westminster, Labour would be left with 4, a loss of 39 seats. The only seats remaining would be Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill.

These projections see the SNP gain 49 seats on their current 6, taking them up to 55 in total. These further gains would come from the Lib Dems, who have 11 seats currently, and the Tories, who have 1. Under these predictions, both parties would lose all of their seats.

Current MPs who would lose their seats if this forecast were to be true, would include Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy and Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander (along with the vast majority of the Scottish PLP). The Lib Dems would lose Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael, Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander and former leader Charles Kennedy.

The full breakdown is as follows:

SNP 52% (NC), Scottish Labour 24% (+1), Scottish Conservative 12% (+2), Lib Dems 4% (-2), Scottish Green Party 4% (-2), Ukip 1% (-1), Others 2%.

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The results of this poll are not good. Not good at all. But how do they compare to earlier polls? Earlier in the week we reported on Survation’s polling, which showed that although Labour were still 20 points behind the SNP, Labour had gained 2 points.

Similarly, over the weekend PanelBase’s poll showed Labour closing the gap with the SNP, who were only shown to have a 10-point lead.

Although not exactly where Scottish Labour want to be so close to the election, both polls showed Labour making gains on the SNP.

So Scottish labour’s task ranges between a 10 point lead for the SNP and a 28 point lead for the SNP. Either way, Scottish Labour’s new team have an enormous job on their hands – and the fate of Labour Party and the whole of the UK hangs in the balance.

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