Labour carrying out seat-by-seat UKIP risk assessment

Labour have devised a plan, dubbed the “Ribena test”, to assess the threat of UKIP to the party. Once assessment has been carried out on a constituency, a detailed briefing is given to the candidate to help deal with the problem of Labour to UKIP switchers.

According to today’s Mirror, briefings have been given to the 50 most at risk candidates by Labour HQ.

And insider reportedly told the paper:

“This is the most sophisticated election tool we’ve developed. We can compile risk assessments on a constituency by constituency basis – even taking it down to street by street.”

The paper also says that UKIP insiders do not believe the party can take more than a single seat directly from Labour. However, damage to the Labour vote could harm the party in a swathe of marginal seats.

In December, The Telegraph leaked a Labour campaign strategy briefing about how to deal with the rise in support for UKIP. Despite negative headlines about a supposed command not to talk about immigration on the doorstep, many privately praised the 33-page document for its level of detailed research.

These are signs that, following UKIP’s victory at last May’s European elections and the close-call in October’s Heywood and Middleton by-election, Labour are now taking UKIP very seriously. Only last August, there were leaked reports of a “9% strategy” in Labour’s election planning: the belief being that if UKIP win 9% of the vote, it would hurt the Tories but not Labour. Talk of this now appears to have disappeared completely, and the “Ribena test” is the latest proof that Nigel Farage’s party are no longer being written off as a disgruntled Conservative protest vote.