Scottish Labour are once again campaigning on things that matter to people

I admit that the recent Ashcroft Polls were yet another punch in the guts for the Scottish Labour Party. Based on these figures, the SNP are set to win 56 out of 59 seats in May, with even Gordon Brown’s seat falling to the Nationalists. And the reason is pretty clear – why would anyone who voted Yes in September vote for Labour now?

And yet I can’t help thinking that there is a definite, detectable movement in public perception. People like our policy announcements. They like that we will have 1000 more nurses in Scotland funded by the Mansion Tax. They like that we will have railways in public ownership and regulated bus services. They like that we will reintroduce the 50p Top Rate. And actually, its hard for Yes voters to disagree with any of those policies. Scottish Labour are once again campaigning on things that matter to people.

However, Nationalist strategists know that regardless of the outcome in May, they win anyway. Why? If Labour win outright, then Scotland will be betrayed by the ‘Red Tories’ who can’t be trusted on things like Trident and austerity. If the Tories win outright, then Scotland didn’t get the Government it voted for. If it’s a hung parliament that relies on SNP support, then that may prove a step too far for England.

Of course, the truth of the matter is that a Labour Government will be very different from a Tory one with an emphasis on economic growth rather than austerity, with a balanced budget taking longer to achieve but reducing the pain along the way. And the SNP know all too well that this is popular with their own rank and file too. So Labour are held up to be the most palatable option in a Coalition while we are simultaneously being castigated as terrible liars.

I believe that we are in a new place in post referendum Scotland that threatens to destabilise Scottish Politics for years to come. Thanks to election cycles here, there is a major one every year which in turn means that the Executive doesn’t have time to govern – only campaign. If the polls are to be believed then 2015 will go SNP in Scotland, 2016 Scottish Parliament – SNP in Scotland, 2017 Local Government – SNP majority of Councils. If there is another referendum in 2018/19, where Scotland most likely rejects Independence, then the cycle repeats once again. And that’s without mentioning a potential EU Referendum or future European Elections. If anyone doubts me then simply tune into First Minister’s Questions and see Kezia pointing out where the SNP took their eye off the ball.

But despite this, the SNP are buoyant and have succeeded in turning the SSP and the Greens into wholly-owned subsidiaries. They have a professionalism at the heart of their machine that has proved incredibly effective and they probably have John Swinney’s time as Leader to thank for it. They produced a long term plan and it has, on the whole, been successful in eating away at the largest obstacle to Independence – Scottish Labour.

But we’re not dead yet. Far from it. What the polls are not showing is that Scottish Labour’s membership has also increased substantially and that contact rates are approaching the levels gained during the referendum. Whilst returns are sobering they are not catastrophic and in many cases encouraging.

The fact is, the new Scottish Labour Leadership team of Jim Murphy and Kezia Dugdale has given the party in Scotland a much needed shot in the arm. But we are also facing the reality of a political landscape changed forever where people now define themselves as either Yes or No. Let me assure readers that the Scottish Labour Party is working hard to ensure a Labour victory in May. There is an energy that will intensify as polling day approaches. And we know the stakes are high, not just for the people of Scotland – but for all of the UK. But come election night I don’t believe that the results are going to be anything like what the polls are currently showing in Scotland. Because faced with the reality and secrecy of the ballot box people deep down know that Labour is the only way forward. Independence may have to wait for another day. The Scottish People know better.

 Jamie Glackin is Chair of the Scottish Labour Party