The by-election test facing Corbyn’s Labour in the heart of Brexitland

Amid the selection of a candidate to take on Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park, and the question of whether to fight the seat at all, it could be forgotten that there is another Commons by-election looming.

The resignation of Stephen Phillips from his Sleaford and North Hykeham constituency – caused by “irreconcilable policy differences” with the government – presents an opportunity for Labour to give the Tories a bruising over Brexit, as well as to further embarrass Theresa May, who has now lost three MPs since becoming prime minister.

Labour’s elections and campaigns director Jon Trickett described Phillips’ decision to quit, coming so soon after that of Goldsmith, as proof that May cannot “lay out a convincing plan to deliver for Britain”

Why has Phillips resigned? 

Stephen Phillips was a Brexit campaigner but has quit as a Conservative MP because of concern over his government’s handling of withdrawal, saying he was “unable properly to represent the people who elected me”. He has been critical of the government’s rightward lurch and May’s plan to aim to invoke article 50 without consulting parliament. And, damningly, he has said since his resignation said that he could “no longer live with being labelled a Tory”. This points to the many divisions in the Conservative party, and supports Tom Watson’s argument that Britain is likely to be headed to a general election as May would struggle to get a Brexit bill through parliament.

When will the by-election be held? 

We don’t yet know, though the date could be confirmed as soon as today.

What was the result in 2015? 

Labour came second, though it was a distant second place with 10,690 votes – some 24,000 off Stephen Phillips’ 34,805. The Lib Dems came fourth with 3,500 to UKIP’s third place and 9,716 votes. The Lincolnshire Independents came fifth – retaining their deposit – with 3,233 votes.

Is Labour likely to pour in resources? 

Probably not. This is never likely to be a target seat, ranking in the top 100 of safe Tory seats at 86 but, mindful of some poor poll ratings, Jeremy Corbyn will want to avoid a result that suggest Labour is going backwards.

What is happening in local Lincolnshire politics?

The area of North Kesteven, which includes Phillips’ constituency and Lincoln, voted in significant numbers for Brexit with 62.3 per cent support for the motion to leave the European Union. The local council of North Kesteven is Conservative-run, with Lincolnshire county council also having a strong Conservative showing – 35 councillors out of the total 77. Labour is the joint equal second largest party with 12 councillors, equalling UKIP. The county council is controlled by the Conservatives in coalition with various independents and the Lib Dems.

Why does the by-election matter? 

While a Labour victory seems hard to envisage, a strong showing for the party would support Corbyn’s claim that Labour under his leadership can still do well outside of metropolitan areas, a major fear cited by his internal critics. However, should some of Labour’s support move to UKIP then there will be further questions asked about whether the party is putting out a convincing message on the questions facing Britain today.

Who might be the candidate? 

It seems too early to tell but the 2015 Labour candidate has ruled himself out, posting to Twitter:

Not a chance @MattJeziorski :-)) https://t.co/ZOddWrGJmd

— Jason Pandya-Wood (@jjwood01) November 4, 2016

Labour’s local branch is due to meet today and Wednesday.