Labour has made progress on NHS and Brexit but Sleaford slump shows we need answers on living standards and security

Labour’s horrible defeat in Sleaford and North Hykeham underlined many of the problems we face but it also began to point to some of the answers.

Of course, the slip from second to fourth, in a Brexit-loving corner of Lincolnshire was the proverbial unpleasant result: shocking but not surprising. After Christian Wolmar lost his deposit in Richmond Park a week earlier, few would say they didn’t see this slide coming.

Weeks of campaigning on the future of the local A&E unit, and the NHS more broadly, fronted by dustman Jim Clarke, brought us to a vote share of 10.2 per cent, down 7 percentage points. Last night’s result was a culmination of the political squeeze in which it finds itself. Stark opposition to David Cameron and Brexit has been replaced by the fight against Theresa May – except when she pinches our ideas, like putting workers on boards, but then she u-turned on them. See how it gets messy?

It is little different on Brexit. “Were we for it or against it?” was the question which came up most on the doorstep in Sleaford and North Hykeham. Well we were against it but, now it is happening anyway, we are for it – yet we are still striving to deliver a “better Brexit”. Keir Starmer’s speech in the Commons this week represented a solid start on tackling this challenge, laying out what Labour wants from a plan for leaving the EU, the basics of which he and Emily Thornberry have begun to force out from the silent, hamstrung Tories.

So it gets more complex still. At least we can rely on crushing the Lib Dems, that weasel-worded bunch of austerity champions. At least we thought we could. The Lib Dems, despite embarking on some u-turns of spectacular proportion in the coalition, and then further flip-flops upon being cast out of government, eked out a small lead over Labour to come third with 11 per cent in the Lincolnshire vote.

That is through no skill of their own but they know that their shrunken base of support around the country is overwhelmingly pro-Remain. It allows them a clear story to tell to the few people who are listening. Labour needs to talk to the whole country and, as we all know, is wrestling with how to articulate a new narrative to its followers, a third of whom voted to leave the EU.

“Even if one takes into account that the by-election turnout was considerably lower than in the general election, it was an appalling result for Labour,” backbencher David Winnick told the Press Association today.

The veteran MP put it starkly but the suspected reasons for defeat in Sleaford and North Hykeham are well-known. Not just Labour’s contortions over Brexit, but a focus on the NHS which is sensible, moral and justified by Tory neglect but has struggled to bring in sufficient voters since we last won a general election in 2005.

And then there is the leadership. The country has sensed, unsurprisingly, that much of the party was at war for much of this year. Thankfully, in the aftermath of conference, that has started to shift. Members and MPs have started to come together. Corbynsceptics in the Commons now declare the leadership issue is “settled” while others, who might be privately critical, are serving on the frontbench and holding the Tories to account on their shameful failures on everything from the “plan” for Brexit to their war on the poor.

If there was to be a general election tomorrow, then Labour would be sunk. But there won’t be. May’s caution makes a snap poll hugely unlikely and creates space for Labour to do more to get its house in order.

As time goes on, the full state of Tory confusion over Brexit will emerge. That is not going to translate into a sudden upswing in support for Labour but, in cricket terms, it gives us a something to bowl at.

There are other conclusions to be drawn from Sleaford and North Hykeham. None of this is a criticism of Clarke, or his campaign team and the MPs who went to help, who fought a strenuous campaign in very difficult circumstances. It is clear, however, that we need an argument that goes beyond the NHS and Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn is an intellectual, a campaigner and an activist for social justice. It appears, however, that this did not go down well in a true-blue part of Lincolnshire. We need arguments and policies on small businesses, living standards, economic security, national security and immigration if we are to regain lost ground in places like this. Labour is unlikely to ever win in Sleaford and North Hykeham, where the Tory candidate racked up a majority of 24,115 in the general election, but we need to win in hundreds of other Brexit-backing towns and villages around Britain. The roots of recovery lie in listening to their residents’ worries.