Luke Akehurst: These simple facts show Labour has declined in council by-elections

I’ve been regularly reviewing Labour’s performance in local council by-elections for LabourList.

What’s happened on this front in the three months since the start of the year?

Here, in the same format as I presented them previously, is the change in Labour vote share in all the council by-elections where there has been a Labour candidate in the last two contests (so a comparison can be drawn) since the start of 2017. The results are grouped by region so you can see the pattern around the country.

As in my previous reviews there are stark regional variations, with the caveat that some regions saw very few by-elections during this period.

There were no by-elections in Wales during this period and only one in Scotland – showing the now usual pattern of a steep fall in Labour’s vote – as they have all-out local elections scheduled in May.

In line with the previous pattern London saw Labour’s vote going up in its single by-election. The worst performing regions were the North and North West.

Of a total of 32 by-elections during this period Labour’s vote share was down in 24 of the contests, three quarters, which is noticeably worse than the pattern last year, when it was more like two-thirds.

Eastern (average Labour vote share down 5.4 per cent)

Elsenham & Henham (Uttlesford) -2.3 per cent

Gade Valley (Three Rivers) -9.6 per cent

Great & Little Oakley (Tendring) +5.5 per cent

Hertford Castle (East Hertfordshire) -2.9 per cent

Waltham Cross (Broxbourne) -14.8 per cent

Waterside (North Norfolk) -8.5 per cent

East Midlands (average Labour vote share up 4 per cent)

Derwent (Derbyshire) -2.4 per cent

Kingswood & Hazel Leys (Corby) +10.3 per cent

London

Roxbourne (Harrow) +13.7 per cent

North (average Labour vote share down 16.0 per cent)

Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) -16.6 per cent

Newcomen (Redcar & Cleveland) -5.8 per cent

Sandhill (Sunderland) -29.9 per cent

South Heaton (Newcastle-upon-Tyne) -11.8 per cent

North West (average Labour vote share down 8.5 per cent)

Bollington (East Cheshire) -8.6 per cent

Failsworth East (Oldham) -7.3 per cent

Higher Croft (Blackburn) -10.4 per cent

Kersal (Salford) -21.5 per cent

St Johns (Fylde) -8.4 per cent

Walton le Dale East (South Ribble) -9.4 per cent

Warbreck (Blackpool) +6.3 per cent

Scotland

Kilmarnock East & Hurlford (East Ayrshire) -16.6 per cent

South East (average Labour vote share up 6.8 per cent)

Emmbrook (Wokingham) -6.1 per cent

Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (West Oxfordshire) -4.5 per cent

Winklebury (Basingstoke & Deane) +31.1 per cent

South West (average Labour vote share down 5.8 per cent)

Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) -2.0 per cent

Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch) -9.6 per cent

West Midlands (average Labour vote share up 0.6 per cent)

Burton (East Staffordshire) -5.2 per cent

Norton (Bromsgrove) +7.1 per cent

St Thomas’s (Dudley) +3.4 per cent

Town (East Staffordshire) -3.0 per cent

Yorkshire & Humberside (average Labour vote share down 5.4 per cent)

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) -26.2 per cent

Dinnington (Rotherham) +15.5 per cent