May’s deal “unravels before our eyes” as Raab and McVey quit

Sienna Rodgers

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Dominic Raab has resigned as Brexit Secretary, and likely dealt the final blow for Theresa May’s deal. It’s not improbable now that Penny Mordaunt, another Brexiteer with an eye on the leadership, Esther McVey, who some say was reduced to tears by the draft agreement at cabinet yesterday, and Andrea Leadsom could all join him in quitting. As Labour’s Jon Trickett has commented: “This so-called deal has unravelled before our eyes.”

Raab’s dramatic move follows the resignation of a junior minister this morning, Shailesh Vara. Though one is a Brexiteer and the other a Remainer, both gave the same key reason: the backstop. The draft withdrawal agreement says if there’s no deal and no transition extension, the whole UK will be in a “single customs territory” with the EU and Northern Ireland will be in a deeper customs relationship with the EU. The resignation letters set out the reasons this has angered Brexiteers: there’s no time limit; we can’t withdraw unilaterally; and NI has a different relationship to the rest of the UK, which threatens the union.

This is a “miserable failure of negotiation”, Keir Starmer tweeted this morning. The Shadow Brexit Secretary makes a similar point to Raab, and notes that there is huge detail on the backstop, but the WA is vague on the future relationship. That doesn’t exactly promote confidence in the government line that a deal will be struck in time to avoid the backstop ever needing to kick in.

The Prime Minister is facing a hostile Commons this morning – her statement to MPs is due at 10.30am. Starmer is calling for the Prime Minister to “urgently to rethink her approach”, and it’s surely necessary. It’s more obvious than ever that her deal cannot get the required approval of MPs. With dozens of Tory rebels, May would need the support of Labour MPs. But Labour Leavers like Kate Hoey would prefer no deal. The group she’d have to rely on – MPs such as Gareth Snell, Caroline Flint and Lisa Nandy who campaigned to remain but represent Leave seats – look less likely to back May’s deal with every ministerial resignation.

Debate within the Labour Party now centres on what happens next – particularly, whether a general election can be forced. Last night, Momentum was talking about launching a campaign to persuade wavering Labour MPs to vote down the deal. This morning the Corbynite group says it is holding “urgent meetings” for election planning. But thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, the Tories would have to agree to an election – and why would they do that?

10am update. Breaking news: Esther McVey has just resigned… The one thing we know for certain is that morning emails are getting more difficult. Expect more resignations to follow today (perhaps on the hour every hour?).

The government is falling apart, but it’s not at all clear that the Tories will lose power.

Sienna @siennamarla

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