‘The best campaign ever’: Swindon Labour hopes to end two-decade Tory era

“This is probably the best campaign we’ve ever had,” Swindon Labour council candidate Stanka Adamcova tells LabourList following a canvassing session in Haydon Wick.

She is standing in the ward in the local elections next week. Haydon Wick is traditionally seen as safe Tory territory, but Labour gained a seat in the ward in the elections here in 2022. Winning this year could see Adamcova unseat the Tory leader of the council.

The reception on the doorstep is largely positive despite the ward’s reputation. Adamcova is upbeat, telling me that speaking to Tory-Labour switchers gives her the “extra drive” to keep canvassing another day. On the drizzly day of my visit, the value of that additional motivation is clear.

Labour hopes to take council led by Tories since 2004

Swindon council has been led by the Tories since 2004. But Labour made important gains in last year’s local elections and increased the party’s total number of councillors by three. The Tories lost three seats, meaning the current balance of the council is 32 Conservative councillors and 23 Labour, with one Independent and one vacant seat making up the total of 57.

“We’re really lucky that we had such a good result last year, that it’s meant that there’s quite a few routes to us taking control,” Labour group leader Jim Robbins tells me over coffee after a canvassing session in Central ward – a key ward Labour is looking to hold onto following recent Tory gains in the area.

Despite the battle Labour is facing in Central, Robbins says it feels like the party is “on the move all over the town”, noting the “buzz” around its parliamentary candidate in South Swindon – former Lewisham East MP Heidi Alexander – and the success that the party saw in North Swindon at the 2022 locals.

“That’s really demoralising for the Conservatives,” he argues. “Because there isn’t an easy path for them to try and defend some of those seats, because they know they need to be out trying to defend everyone.”

‘We’re going to places where we’ve never won’

“We’re going to places where we’ve never, never won, like St Andrews, and people are very pro-us,” Will Stone, Labour’s parliamentary candidate for North Swindon, tells me. He sees that voters switching to Labour is in part due to the rising cost of living: “People are struggling, and they’re looking for something new.”

This assessment is echoed by Adamcova who argues that people “just really want to see change” after years of “mismanaging” by the Tories at both the local and national level.

Robbins is also strongly critical of the Tories’ record locally, telling me that they have built up a “massive debt” and “there isn’t a huge amount to show for it”. During the canvassing session in Central, he points out the historic Mechanics Building, which has lain derelict since 1986.

He argues that the continued closure of notable buildings around Swindon is having an impact on the outlook of voters: “They’re feeling like the town’s in decline. And we really want to get out there and make some progress and stop that feeling.”

Asked what his priorities would be if Labour were to take control of the council, regeneration is high on the list, alongside “getting to grips” with the budget.

Bellwether town chosen for Keir Starmer’s local election campaign launch

Swindon was chosen for the recent launch of Labour’s national local elections campaign, with leader Keir Starmer visiting and other shadow cabinet members door-knocking since.

But the local party in Swindon has been gearing up for the elections for months, with Robbins estimating that activists took just a week’s break between last year’s campaign and this one. “It feels like everything’s going in the right direction,” he tells me. “We feel like we’ve done everything we can, and now it’s just making sure that we get out those people to actually vote for us.”

The selection of Swindon as the location for Labour’s national launch is indicative of the area’s electoral significance.

The town’s reputation as a bellwether – both of its constituencies were represented by Labour MPs throughout the New Labour years before being taken by the Tories in 2010 – means a strong performance in these local elections will serve as evidence that Labour is on track ahead of the next general election. It’s an overused phrase, but Swindon is almost certainly an area that any “path to a Labour victory” must run through.

“We’re very confident that we’re going to get two Labour MPs in Swindon,” Robbins tells me. “And if we can get the council this year, that just sets everything up.” He says that Labour needs to gain six seats to take control of the council and describes the party as “desperate” to get in. “We know that the Tories locally have run out of ideas, and we’ve got a plan that we feel would really work for the town.”

But the party does have a mountain to climb. Of the 19 seats up for grabs next week, 12 are currently held by the Tories and the majority of those seats are being contested by sitting councillors.

‘I don’t like to look at the polls’

Labour’s poll lead nationally is likely to have buoyed many party activists’ spirits in Swindon and beyond in the run-up to the local elections.

“I don’t like to look at the polls, because you can get caught up in it,” said Stone. “But we were four points ahead in the polls last time. Now we’ve been 20 points ahead in the polls since last October. So hopefully it translates over.”

Labour’s large lead has narrowed in various polls more recently however, and pressure remains on the party to prove its dominance can translate into success at the ballot box.

Labour has achieved successive Westminster by-election holds, but the local elections will be one of the largest tests yet of the party’s standing among the electorate under Starmer.

Off the back of a disappointing performance in 2019 – the last time many of these seats were contested – gains in seats like Swindon will be a key indicator of how far the political winds are changing in the run-up to the next general election.