Revealed: The 50 seats on a knife edge at the general election

Several prominent Tory politicians could be at risk of losing their seats to Labour, according to new research suggesting even Rishi Sunak’s seat is at risk if Labour sustains current poll leads.

The research – undertaken by Electoral Calculus at the beginning of November and shared with LabourList – looked at which 50 seats are set to be the tightest contests, based on new boundaries and a recent national poll showing, like most polls, a large Labour lead.

The research suggests that seats in areas currently represented by Tory frontbenchers including Mims Davies and Jo Churchill could narrowly fall to Labour, despite having won healthy majorities of 18,197 and 24,988 respectively at the 2019 election.

It also predicted that Labour could clinch constituencies held on current boundaries by former cabinet ministers Therese Coffey, Alok Sharma (who has said he will stand down) and Liam Fox.

Coffey’s constituency was projected to be the most marginal, with a predicted Labour majority of just one vote. She won the seat in 2019 with a majority of more than 20,000.

The analysis projected small Labour wins in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – by 115 and 411 votes respectively. The party recently achieved two historic by-election victories in the constituencies, winning Mid Beds with a majority of 1,192 votes and Tamworth with a majority of 1,316.

Electoral Calculus’ research also paints a positive picture for Scottish Labour, predicting that the party could win three of the four Scottish seats calculated to be among Labour’s top marginals based on current polling.

Electoral Calculus founder and CEO Martin Baxter told LabourList: “Neither Conservative nor Labour politicians want to admit that the polling numbers are pointing to a very large Labour victory. The Conservatives don’t want to be despondent, and Labour doesn’t want to be triumphant in advance.

“But poll after poll has shown a very large Labour lead for over a year now. If the actual election is anything like that, then there will be a big political turning point.”

Labour has held a consistent poll lead over the Tories in Politico’s ‘poll of polls‘, which aggregates data from multiple sources, since December 2021, achieving its largest lead in October last year – 52% to the Conservatives’ 22% – during Liz Truss’ tumultuous premiership.

Redfield & Wilton’s latest national voting intention survey – released on Monday – found Labour leading the Tories by 19%. A total of 43% of respondents said they would vote Labour if there were a general election tomorrow, while 24% said they would back the Tories.

Asked about Electoral Calculus’ research, a spokesperson for the Constituency Labour Party in Sunak’s seat of Richmond said: “Unless polls change this will be the first election since Prime Minister Balfour lost that a PM could lose their seat.

“A symbolic defeat that would show the whole country is ready for change. However, it will require hard work, dedication and commitment from the national party.

“Even if Labour don’t win here, a narrow or significantly reduced majority for Sunak could put an end to talk of safe seats and show Labour is competitive in all parts of the country.”

The Labour Party was approached for comment.