Polls suggest these 37 ‘non-battleground’ seats are winnable amid selection races

Katie Neame
© DrimaFilm/Shutterstock.com

Dozens of seats on Labour’s list of “non-battleground” constituencies at the next general election could be winnable for the party, according to new analysis based on recent polling.

According to research by Election Maps UK, Labour could win as many as 37 of the seats on its list of 211 ‘non-battleground’ constituencies – including those held on current boundaries by government ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey and former ministers Jacob Rees-Mogg and Kwasi Kwarteng.

The analysis – which was based on the latest polling and new constituency boundaries that will be used at the next election – suggests that Labour could overturn some sizeable Tory majorities, winning seats held on current boundaries by Shailesh Vara and Damian Green, who were elected in 2019 with majorities of 25,983 and 24,029 respectively.

All of the seats that exist on current boundaries are held by Conservative MPs.

Labour recently advertised for applicants to stand as its candidates in the ‘non-battleground’ seats, accelerating its selection process amid increased speculation and preparation for a potential spring general election. The deadline is January 10th.

Writing for LabourList today on her advice to those considering standing in ‘non-battleground’ seats, former Labour national executive committee member Alice Perry said she was on a panel in 2017 that selected candidates in the eastern region – including in seats thought unwinnable at the time.

“Some of these “unwinnable” seats ended up returning Labour MPs… I selected candidates in 2017 in places like Peterborough and Ipswich not expecting that we would win. Politics can be unpredictable,” she wrote.

The Labour Party was approached for comment.

The full list of seats is as follows:

Constituency name MP elected in 2019 Projected result Projected majority
Ashford Damian Green LAB GAIN 2,507
Aylesbury Rob Butler LAB GAIN 6,250
Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart LAB GAIN 1,774
Central Devon Mel Stride LAB GAIN 3,989
Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch LAB GAIN 992
Chester South and Eddisbury Edward Timpson LAB GAIN 2,943
Congleton Fiona Bruce LAB GAIN 2,284
Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines LAB GAIN 2,590
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Andrew Selous LAB GAIN 3,363
Forest of Dean Mark Harper LAB GAIN 3,475
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O’Brien LAB GAIN 5,322
Harwich and North Essex Bernard Jenkin LAB GAIN 2,478
Hertford and Stortford Julie Marson LAB GAIN 3,808
Isle of Wight East Bob Seely LAB GAIN 2,289
Isle of Wight West Unknown (new seat) LAB GAIN 2,231
Melton and Syston Unknown (new seat) LAB GAIN 690
Mid Derbyshire Pauline Latham LAB GAIN 4,069
Mid Leicestershire Edward Argar LAB GAIN 1,451
Newark Robert Jenrick LAB GAIN 403
North East Hertfordshire Oliver Heald LAB GAIN 3,156
North East Somerset and Hanham Jacob Rees-Mogg LAB GAIN 4,569
North Somerset Liam Fox LAB GAIN 4,283
North West Cambridgeshire Shailesh Vara LAB GAIN 1,763
Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt LAB GAIN 3,025
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Alok Sharma LAB GAIN 1,537
Ribble Valley Nigel Evans LAB GAIN 1,465
South Dorset Richard Drax LAB GAIN 2,705
South Norfolk Richard Bacon LAB GAIN 2,490
South West Hertfordshire Gagan Mohindra LAB GAIN 2,047
Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng LAB GAIN 487
St Austell and Newquay Steve Double LAB GAIN 4,229
Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley LAB GAIN 941
Suffolk Coastal Therese Coffey LAB GAIN 1,375
Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell LAB GAIN 970
Tatton Esther McVey LAB GAIN 1,884
Weston-super-Mare John Penrose LAB GAIN 5,277
Windsor Adam Afriyie LAB GAIN 1,385

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