Labour selects candidate for the most important seat on election night: Buckingham and Bletchley

Labour has selected Callum Anderson to fight Buckingham and Bletchley, which could be a key seat to watch on election night as experts predict victory would mean the party is on track for an overall majority.

The new seat is composed of parts of Buckingham, held by the Conservative Greg Smith with a majority of 20,411, with the Liberal Democrats in 2nd place and Labour in 3rd, and Milton Keynes South, where the Conservative Iain Stewart led Labour at the last election by 6,944 votes. Stewart is to contest Buckingham and Bletchley at the forthcoming election.

Recent analysis of the 2019 general election results as if it had happened on new boundaries, by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, suggested Labour could need 125 seats and a 12.7% Labour-to-Tory swing to win an overall majority.

It places Buckingham and Bletchley as the final 125th seat Labour would need to win to secure power, assuming a uniform Labour-Tory swing nationally (though the analysis does not factor in Labour-versus-SNP contests in Scotland). It suggests that if Anderson secures a 12.7% swing early on election night, just enough to get him over the line in Buckingham and Bletchley, the party will be on course, narrowly, for victory nationwide.

Bucks & Beds Young Labour posted on X following Anderson’s selection: “A good night for Labour could still see Buckingham & Bletchley being one of the closest races in the country – that’s why it’s vital to get young activists out on the doors to help get Buckingham, Bletchley, Winslow and the rural villages the MP they deserve.”

Anderson was elected to represent South Acton ward on Ealing council in 2022, and is originally from Luton. He was longlisted in Stevenage but lost out to Kevin Bonavia.

In the contest for Buckingham and Bletchley, Anderson was backed by the GMB, the CWU, and Community.

With Anderson’s selection, Labour has now chosen candidates for all three of the Milton Keynes seats up for grabs at the next election. Pollster Chris Curtis will fight Milton Keynes North, while Milton Keynes council cabinet member Emily Darlington will take on the Tories in Milton Keynes Central.

The area is subject to boundary changes, going from two to three MPs, but in 2019 it returned no Labour representatives.