Labour poll lead shrinks just as second suspension and Gaza vote deepen troubles

Labour’s vote share has fallen to its lowest level in a Savanta poll since September 2022, just as the party faces fresh scrutiny after a second parliamentary candidate was suspended over comments about Israel – and the fresh headache of another potential Commons vote on Gaza.

A new survey by the pollster puts Labour still well ahead of the Conservatives but its 41% vote share is down five points on two weeks ago. It is the lowest vote share since autumn 2022 and the lowest lead over the Tories, at 12 points, since June 2023. The Conservatives rose two points to 29% over the same period.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, called it a “significant drop” that “may well be in response to a torrid couple of weeks for Keir Starmer’s party”.

But Hopkins also said he would “caution people not to read too much into one poll – yet.”

The poll was carried out between February 9th and 11th.  It comes just as Labour comes under significant political pressure, triggered by an initial Daily Mail story late on February 10th, which claimed Labour’s now-former Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali had said Israel “allowed” the Hamas attacks of Octover 7 to give it the “green light” to attack Gaza.

While Ali has now been suspended and apologised after further reported comments surfaced, Labour has faced heavy criticism for not suspending him more swiftly and questions about how far antisemitism persists on the left. Ali will remain on ballot papers as it is too late to remove his name.

Now Labour faces scrutiny over its selection process more generally after it moved yesterday – after the poll was carried out – to suspend a second parliamentary candidate in Lancashire, former MP Graham Jones, in relation to alleged remarks about Israel. The Jewish Labour Movement described the comments as “appalling and unacceptable”.

More in Common’s UK director Luke Tryl noted on X this morning that “what was supposed to be horror show week for Tories is arguably their best this year with better inflation data [and] Labour woes.”

Labour peer Peter Mandelson told LabourList: “We are now in the long campaign for the general election and it’s going to be a tough, endless roller coaster ride. That’s what hotly contested elections are like so everyone better get strapped up for the ride.”

“The Labour lead in this poll has dropped seven points. It presents our lowest Labour lead since June 2023.”

Political research director at Savanta @ChrisHopkins92 adds that ‘this implies that there’s possibly some movement in voter support for Labour.”https://t.co/4FESc3tc6c pic.twitter.com/BOxSSC7UwK

— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 14, 2024

The past two weeks since Savanta’s last poll has also seen the party confirm its rowback on the £28bn target for its green spending, which also prompted a wave of high-profile criticism.

Hopkins added: “One thing is for certain, if this drop in the polls is a consequence of their recent troubles, it does not bode well for a short campaign. A Conservative machine in full swing and the inevitable increased scrutiny from the media may well be very uncomfortable for the Labour Party.”

Meanwhile Labour faces the challenge of navigating another potential Commons vote on an immediate ceasefire in Gaza next week, with the Scottish National Party pledging to table a motion on Wednesday. The party called on Labour and the Tories to not “equivocate” and to join the SNP in backing an “immediate ceasefire now”.

Labour left campaign group Momentum said “every single Labour MP has a duty” to support the ceasefire plan. The previous Gaza vote saw a string of shadow frontbenchers quit and dozens of MPs defy the Labour whip.

However, if Savanta’s results were replicated at a general election, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus, Labour would still be on course for a significant majority of 92.