Changing face of Labour: 2 in 5 current supporters didn’t back the party in 2019

Two in five voters who say they now back Labour did not vote for the party in 2019, new polling suggests.

The Redfield and Wilton Strategies polling shows only 61% of the current support base backed the party at the last general election, with around one in five voting Tory and the rest backing other parties or not voting at all.

While 82% of Labour voters at the last election said they would back the party again, only 47% of Conservative voters said they would remain loyal. Some 16% said they would back Labour, and 18% said they would back Reform.

The poll of 2,000 voters on Sunday found 44% expect a Labour majority and 11% expect a Labour-led minority government, but 23% expect either a Tory majority or minority government.

Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating slid to its lowest ever level for him as either prime minister or chancellor, with 26% approving and 52% disapproving. By contrast, 33% approve of Starmer and 33% disapprove. Starmer continues to lead Sunak on 17 different leadership characteristics voters were surveyed on, from representing change to being a strong leader or building a strong economy.

It comes just as another less positive poll for the party suggested 41% of voters think the party has a problem with antisemitism, including 31% of 2019 Labour voters. The Savanta poll was taken shortly after Labour withdrew support from Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali over his comments about Israel, reviving questions over an issue Starmer had worked hard to draw a line under since taking over from former leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The tally is the highest of any major party, though 24% of voters said the same of the Conservatives. But Savanta suggests the public is divided over Starmer’s handling of the issue, with 31% saying he has, 30% saying he has not and 14% unsure.

Some 29% of voters said the Tories had a problem with Islamophobia, even before the latest row involving now-suspended MP and deputy chair Lee Anderson. But 19% said the same of Labour. Labour has repeatedly written to the Tories over their record.

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Keir Starmer has changed Labour so that it is unrecognisable from the party of 2019, and has pulled out antisemitism by its roots. We will continue to fight antisemitism, it has no place in the Labour Party or wider society.

“Keir Starmer’s decision to withdraw support from a Parliamentary candidate during a by-election is unprecedented and shows that the Labour party has changed.”